Top workforce trends for the new year.

• Author: Marshall, Jeffrey
• Position: Workplace

The Herman Group, which calls itself a group of "consulting futurists," has peered into its crystal ball and come up with the following top trends for 2004:

1. Employment Market Turbulence. Pent-up energy among employees who have felt trapped in their current positions will stimulate unprecedented churning in the labor marketplace, which will threaten corporate stability and capacity to serve customers. Some companies will go out of business because they are unable to retain a sufficient number of qualified employees to get the work done.

2. Shift to Sellers' Market in Labor. As the economy picks up, employers will face the most severe skilled labor shortage in history. Corporate recruiters will become more agressive in a highly competitive race to attract and hold top talent. Workers who are fortunate enough to have found their preferred work environment will tend to stay longer.

3. Fluid International Job Movement. Economic issues and skilled labor shortages in the United States will move even more jobs to other countries, where workers will improve their skills to perform new tasks. In some cases, U.S. employers will discover that foreign workers are not performing satisfactorily, and jobs will be returned to this country.

4. Retirement Will Evaporate. Retirement, as we have known it for two generations, will continue its metamorphosis. Fewer people will retire completely; retirees will move into jobs in other fields, start their own businesses and engage in other activities to remain productive into their 70s, 80s and 90s.

5. Training and Education Will Accelerate. Workers will discover that their skills are obsolete or insufficient to gain the jobs they want. Employers will place greater emphasis on education and training, and corporate development programs will accelerate to help new employees and the redevelopment of existing staff.

6. Leadership Deficit Will Be Crippling. As employers discover serious inadequacies...