Time for Plan B.

• Author: Brown, Lester R.
• Position: ECONOMIC OBSERVER

SINCE THE FIRST EARTH DAY almost 40 years ago, we have won many environmental battles; too bad we are losing the war. Our early 21st-century civilization is on an economic path that is destroying and disrupting the natural systems on which it depends. We are consuming renewable resources faster than they can regenerate. Forests are shrinking; grasslands are deteriorating; soils are eroding; water tables are falling; and fisheries are collapsing. We are using up oil at a pace that leaves little time to plan beyond peak oil as well as discharging greenhouse gases into the atmosphere faster than nature can absorb them. As a result, the Earth's temperature is rising; ice sheets are melting; and sea levels are higher.

Ours is not the first civilization to move onto an economic path that is environmentally unsustainable. Many earlier peoples also found themselves in such difficulties. Some were able to change course and avoid economic decline; others--such as the Sumerians, Mayans, and Easter Islanders--were not. Our future depends on changing course, on shifting from Plan A, business as usual, to Plan B, restructuring the global economy. Sustaining progress depends on moving from a fossil-fuel based, automobile-centered, throwaway economy to a renewable-energy based, diversified-transport, reuse-recycle one.

The good news is that we have the technologies necessary to build this new way of life. We can see the Plan B economy emerging in the wind farms of Western Europe, solar rooftops of Japan, growing fleet of gas-electric hybrid cars in the U.S., reforested mountains of South Korea, and bicycle-friendly streets of Amsterdam. The bad news is that we do not have much time. As we contemplate the rapid restructuring needed, it is instructive and encouraging to look at the country's recasting itself in response to World War II. Initially, the U.S. resisted involvement in the war and responded only after it directly was attacked by the Japanese at Pearl Harbor on Dec. 7, 1941--but respond it did. After an all-out commitment, the U.S. engagement helped turn the tide, leading the Allied Forces to victory within three-and-a-half years. In his State of the Union address on Jan. 6, 1942, Pres. Franklin Roosevelt announced the country's arms production goals. The U.S., he said, was planning to produce 45,000 tanks, 60,000 planes, 20,000 anti-aircraft guns, and 6,000,000 tons of merchant shipping.

No one ever had seen such huge numbers. However, Roosevelt...