TIMBER JOBS MATTER: The Flawed Transition of Timber-Dependent Communities in Idaho.

• Author: Polzin, Paul E.
• Position: RESEARCH

There have been a number of reports, mostly in the media, describing how rural timber-dependent communities are faring in the wake of a decades-long decline in employment and mill closings. Stories often highlight a new industry that's sprouted in its place or a new plant that's opened and filled the gap. One example from Washington comes from the town of Leavenworth, which has been highlighted as changing from a timber town to a Bavarian Alps-styled tourist destination.

In Idaho, wood products employment has decreased by roughly 6,200 jobs since 1998 (nearly 23 percent). Many of those jobs losses were particularly hard on rural areas with few alternative employment opportunities.

Headwaters Economics of Bozeman, Montana, recently concluded that, "As a group, formerly timber-dependent counties are not doing better or worse than the rest of the West." They also noted, "We found no statistically significant differences between timber and non-timber counties according to five measures of socioeconomic performance."

Unfortunately, these conclusions are not true as rural timber-dependent counties in Idaho have suffered significantly. An impact analysis comes to a very different conclusion there have been sizable losses and these timber-dependent counties have not grown as rapidly as other communities.

The Headwaters Economics Analysis

The Headwaters Economics report on "The Transition from Western Timber Dependence: Lessons for Counties" begins by presenting trends in the timber-related industries from 1970 to 2015. It uses inflation-adjusted labor earnings in 11 western states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Wyoming). Using this measure, the size of the timber-related industry decreased by almost one-half during this 45-year period.

Headwaters Economics identified 25 historically timber-dependent counties in these western states--counties where timber-related jobs accounted for 20 percent or more of labor earnings between 1970 and 1989. These counties are located in five western states (Montana, Idaho, Washington, Oregon and California).

In comparing these counties with other counties in the West with populations of less than 200,000, they concluded that there was no statistical difference between them. They also concluded that the timber-dependent counties had successfully transitioned away from being dominated by one industry.

The Wrong Variables and Statistical Tests

Headwaters...