Three key indicators--forecasts for jobs, income and productivity.

• Author: Rogers, Carol O.

A plethora of critical information is provided on the economic conditions of the world, the nation, our state and metropolitan areas in this issue. Each article has been researched and written by economists who live and work in Indiana, providing us with unique perspectives on the economic changes and the road ahead.

We provide this particular page as an additional and alternate view of Indiana and its metropolitan areas, focusing on three specific indicators--productivity, jobs and income (see Table 1). These projected numbers may not match those of the area-specific authors because these have been gleaned from Moody's Economic Forecasts. We encourage you to read all of the articles in addition to this snapshot to have a fuller understanding of each area, and utilize both this snapshot and the in-depth articles as an important part of your financial, economic and workforce planning for 2013.

TABLE 1: Projected Percent Change for Three Key Indicators, 2012 to 2013 GDP Jobs PCPI Indiana 2.0% 1.2% 3.6% Anderson 0.4% -0.2% 3.0% Bloomington 1.1% 1.2% 3.4% Columbus 1.0% 1.9% 3.3% Elkhart 0.8% 1.3% 3.5% Evansville 1.2% 1.0% 3.1% Fort Wayne 1.5% 0.9% 3.1% Gary 1.3% 0.4% 3.7% Indianapolis 2.0% 0.9% 3.0% Kokomo 0.6% 1.0% 3.5% Lafayette 1.1% 2.0% 3.3% Michigan City 0.7% 0.1% 3.2% Muncie 0.6% 1.2% 4.2% South Bend 0.8% 0.4% 2.8% Terre Haute 0.6% 0.1% 3.3% Source: IBRC, using subscription data from Economy.com So, what can we gather from just three indicators? On per capita personal income (PCPI), an indicator of relative wealth in an area, Indiana and its metros are forecast to gain anywhere from 2.8 percent in South Bend to 4.2 percent in Muncie (see Figure 1).

FIGURE 1: PCPI Growth Forecast for 2013 Muncie 4.2% Gary 3.7% Kokomo 3.5% Elkhart 3.5% Bloomington 3.4% Lafayette 3.3% Terre Haute 3.3% Columbus 3.3% Michigan City 3.2% Evansville 3.1% Fort Wayne 3.1% Anderson 3.0% Indianapolis 3.0% South Bend 2.8% Indiana 3.6%...