The World Food Outlook.

• Author: Bhatty, Kiran
• Position: Review

The World Food Outlook

Donald. O. Mitchell, Merlinda D. Ingco and Ronald C. Duncan (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997) 216 pp.

The World Food Outlook is written in response to Neo-Malthusian pessimism about the world's ability to feed itself. The book's professed objective is to dispel notions of gloom stirred up by recent (and some not-so-recent) prognostications regarding populations expanding too rapidly, land and other agricultural resources not being able to keep pace, and the environment caving in--leading eventually to widespread hunger and starvation, particularly in the developing world.

The authors' main conclusion is that such fears are quite unfounded. On the contrary, they argue that "the world food situation has improved dramatically for most of the world's consumers," and there does not appear to be any reason to believe that the trend will reverse, as "the prospects are very good that the twenty year period from 1990-2010 will see further gains." Countries that are unable to produce enough for their own populations can, and in fact should, use trade as a means of supplementing their demands and hence compensate for any shortfall. The only exception could be Africa, which might have to rely to some extent on food aid.

The authors provide strong evidence to support their argument that the world will face no significant food shortage in the foreseeable future. They project future world trends based on past food production and consumption, providing a model to increase the credibility of their projections. The book is replete with charts and graphs, mostly using Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Bank data, which provide exact figures and show graphically the trends in food production, consumption and yields. These statistics, presented by major world regions as well as by specific countries, make The World Food Outlook a useful book, particularly for the lay person.

The book is divided into three general areas. In the first part, the authors discuss the world food problem in terms of three main "measures" of the world food situation. These are: (1) the price of food; (2) people's level of nutrition; and (3) domestic food production. These sub-topics, along with a general assessment of the world food problem, make up the first four chapters of the book.

The next four chapters address the second general area, which deals with issues including population growth and the demand for food, quantity and quality...