The Welfare State amid Crime: How Victimization and Perceptions of Insecurity Affect Social Policy Preferences in Latin America and the Caribbean*

• Author: Melina Altamirano,Sarah Berens,Sandra Ley
• Published date: 01 September 2020
• Date: 01 September 2020
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/0032329220940850
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/0032329220940850

Politics & Society

2020, Vol. 48(3) 389 –422

© The Author(s) 2020

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DOI: 10.1177/0032329220940850

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Article

The Welfare State amid

Crime: How Victimization

and Perceptions of Insecurity

Affect Social Policy

Preferences in Latin America

and the Caribbean*

Melina Altamirano

El Colegio de México

Sarah Berens

University of Innsbruck

Sandra Ley

Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas

Abstract

Criminal violence is one of the most pressing problems in Latin America and the

Caribbean, with profound political consequences. Its effects on social policy

preferences, however, remain largely unexplored. This article argues that to under-

stand such effects it is crucial to analyze victimization experiences and perceptions of

insecurity as separate phenomena with distinct attitudinal consequences. Heightened

perceptions of insecurity are associated with a reduced demand for public welfare

provision, as such perceptions reflect a sense of the state’s failure to provide public

security. At the same time, acknowledging the mounting costs and needs that direct

experience with crime entails, victimization is expected to increase support for

social policies, particularly for health services. Survey data from twenty-four Latin

American and Caribbean countries for the period 2008–12 show that perceptions of

*This special issue of Politics & Society titled “Societies under Stress” features an introduction by David

Garland and four articles that were presented as part of the workshop series held at the University of

Southern Denmark, December 2017, organized by Marianne Ulriksen and Peter Starke, and at The Ohio

State University, November 2018, organized by Sarah Brooks, Sarah Berens, and Georg Wenzelburger

and partly funded by the Fritz Thyssen Foundation, Ref 30.18.0.134.PO.

Corresponding Author:

Melina Altamirano, El Colegio de México, Carretera Picacho Ajusco 20, Ampliación Fuentes del Pedregal,

Tlalpan, Mexico City 14110, Mexico.

Email: maltamirano@colmex.mx

940850PASXXX10.1177/0032329220940850Politics & SocietyAltamirano et al.

research-article2020

390 Politics & Society 48(3)

One of the most important changes in the Latin American and Caribbean context in the

last decade has been the dramatic increase of criminal violence. According to the 2014

survey of the Latin American Public Opinion Project, one-third of Latin Americans

identified crime as their country’s main problem.1 Such violent reality has already had

important attitudinal and behavioral consequences across the region, from diminished

support for democracy and trust in democratic institutions to increased support for

iron-fist policies and varying effects on political participation.2

Prevailing evidence therefore suggests that crime-related violence shapes citizens’

views on politics and, subsequently, their support for various state policies and their

engagement with democratic institutions. The literature analyzing the effect of crime

on citizens’ policy perceptions has mainly focused on security issues. However, it is

likely that crime also shapes citizens’ views of state policies beyond those related to

security.3

In this article, we examine how criminal violence affects citizens’ perceptions of

the state’s role regarding welfare policies. Exploring this issue is crucial given that

attitudes toward redistribution are relevant for understanding patterns of welfare pro-

vision and influential in the policymaking process.4 Furthermore, as exposure to cer-

tain contextual conditions can either critically enhance or depress support for social

policy provision among certain segments of the population,5 understanding the impact

of crime is imperative. We argue, however, that in order to unravel the impact of crime

on welfare preferences, we need a disaggregated approach that distinguishes insecu-

rity perception from actual experiences with crime.

We contend that the nature and logic of crime in Latin America and the Caribbean

have implications for citizens’ perceptions about the state and, in consequence, shape

preferences about welfare provision. Criminal activity—particularly that conducted

by organized crime, the main perpetrator of violence in the Latin American region—

expands the public’s distrust in the role of the state in the provision of public security.

High crime rates, thus, serve as an indicator of the state’s willingness to protect its citi-

zens’ well-being.6 Crucially, a diminishing belief in the state’s capabilities to handle

major tasks and functions can also destroy fiscal contracts.7

In this context, we argue, those with a heightened perception of insecurity are less

likely to support the state’s having a larger role in the provision of welfare and public

goods. We suggest that, in the face of severe crime, citizens feeling more exposed to

violence may become more likely to reject interactions with the government, out of

distrust or skepticism. Turning to the experience of crime victimization, we must

acknowledge, however, its consequences in terms of new objective economic and

insecurity indeed reduce support for the state’s role in welfare provision, whereas

crime victimization strongly increases such preferences.

Keywords

crime, social policy preferences, victimization, insecurity perceptions, Latin America

Altamirano et al. 391

health needs, from the restoration of damaged property and productivity costs to medi-

cal and healthcare services. Grievances derived from personal experiences with crime

should, in contrast, positively alter demand for social policy provision, even if victims

are skeptical of public institutions. Actual victimization turns diffuse fears into actual

costs and needs. We therefore expect that, despite the state’s failure to provide public

security, victims are more likely to demand government action as a way of coping with

such new needs and costs.

Our study advocates for the disaggregation and correct identification of crime on

social policy preferences, separating perceptions of insecurity from victimization experi-

ences. We theorize and provide evidence on the varying dynamics linking crime expo-

sure to policy attitudes. The article therefore contributes to the growing literature that

seeks to examine the different behavioral and attitudinal consequences of crime expo-

sure,8 albeit with a more disaggregated account. Ultimately, we contend that the spread

of negative perceptions of insecurity as a result of growing criminal violence limits the

possible expansion of the Latin American and Caribbean welfare state, despite the grow-

ing needs that victims of crime face as a result of their direct exposure to violence.

Perceptions of insecurity tend to be more widespread than victimization.9 A negative

effect of heightened perceptions of insecurity on social policy support, therefore, poses

a severe threat to the expansion of the welfare state, contributing to the ongoing debate

on the challenges of welfare state development in developing countries.10

To understand how a violent context transforms citizens’ perceptions of welfare

policies, we first briefly review previous work on the determinants of social policy

preferences and then explore the extant studies of the connection between welfare

state policies and crime. Second, focusing on criminal violence, we propose two con-

trasting hypotheses about how crime might shape preferences for welfare provision in

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), via perceptions of insecurity and victimiza-

tion experiences, but by very distinct processes. Third, we present our research design,

data, and methods. Fourth, we discuss the statistical tests and the robustness checks.

Finally, in the conclusion, we provide an assessment of the political implications of

growing organized crime activity for the development of the welfare state in LAC.

Welfare State Policies and Crime

A vast political economy literature has explored the different social and economic

determinants of preferences for redistribution and welfare policies. At the micro level,

the most influential insight has been that individual positions in the income distribu-

tion strongly affect preferences, with individuals below the mean preferring higher

levels of redistribution.11

In the Latin American context, scholars have found a diluted effect of relative

income on preferences for redistribution.12 They have provided evidence for the effect

of other individual characteristics, such as occupation and place of residence,13 reveal-

ing potential limitations of the classical income models to account for preferences

beyond advanced democracies. Moreover, low expectations among the poor critically

diminish their demand for welfare policies.14