The war on globalization.

• Author: Bergsten, C. Fred
• Position: Interview

While some blame globalization and unfettered international trade for rising inequality around the world, others fear that protectionism will curb global economic growth. The Journal of International Affairs talked to C. Fred Bergsten, director emeritus of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, about the so-called war on free trade and the future of the global economy.

Is it possible to stop or slow down globalization?

It is not possible to reverse globalization. It has now become such a central feature of the world economy that it is embedded in the structure of business plans and national economic strategies.

It would be possible to slow down the increase in globalization by putting new barriers in place to trade, to investment, or to movement of people. It is also possible to limit the further increases in globalization by avoiding new trade agreements that otherwise would further reduce barriers and extend the degree of globalization. I think the last of those is the most likely.

I think it is not probable that we will see a big outbreak of protectionism, but it is quite possible that we will see a hiatus in the negotiation of new agreements and therefore the continued expansion of globalization could be slowed down for at least some period of time.

What caused the dislocations in Western labor markets?

All studies show that by far the biggest increase in labor disruption and dislocation has been caused by technological change, including automation. But productivity increases more broadly. We have seen that in virtually every country and in every segment of the labor market.

Globalization has probably accelerated the pace of those labor market dislocations, but all studies show that globalization is a modest element in the picture and therefore should not be the major scapegoat for unemployment.

Polls indicate that support in the United States for NAFTA steadily grew among Democrats and independents, but declined among Republicans over the last decade. What caused this change?

I do not trust these public opinion polls at all. I do not think they can be relied upon in judging the public mood. In fact, the politics of the presidential and congressional campaigns in 2016 show that there were substantial components of both parties that are skeptical of globalization, especially of the increase of globalization through further trade agreements. I think we simply have to see how the voting goes in future elections before we can...