The truth about China.

• Author: Nathan, Andrew J.
• Position: 'When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order' by Martin Jacques - Book review

Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order. (New York: Penguin Press, 2009), 576 pp., $29.95.

Will China "rule the world"? Despite his breathless title, Martin Jacques is not so sure. On the one hand, "China ... is destined to become ... ultimately the major global power." On the other hand, "the challenge posed by the rise of China is far more likely to be cultural in nature" than political or military. But on further consideration, "As China becomes a global power, and ultimately a superpower, probably in time the dominant superpower, then it, like every other previous major power, will view the world through the prism of its own history and will seek, subject to the prevailing constraints, to reshape that world in its own image." But then again, "For perhaps the next half-century, it seems unlikely that China will be particularly aggressive"; "for the next twenty years or so ... it will remain an essentially status-quo power." But after all, yes: "China's mass will oblige the rest of the world largely to acquiesce in China's way of doing things."

Such zigzag logic characterizes many of Jacques's arguments. Will China democratize? Very likely: "it seems reasonable to expect serious moves towards democratization within [a twenty-year] timescale, possibly less." But not necessarily: "the weight of what might be described as Confucian orthodoxy is likely to make it more difficult." But probably so: "In the long run it seems rather unlikely ... that China will be able to resist the process of democratization." But still maybe not: "it is pointless to think that China is going to change and adopt Western cultural norms: the practices and ways of thinking are simply too old and too deeply rooted for that to happen." Yet once again, yes: "It is ... likely that within any of the longer time-frames [being considered] there will be profound political changes in China, perhaps involving either the end of Communist rule or a major metamorphosis in its character." And finally, no: "it is inconceivable that Chinese politics will come to resemble those of the West."

Where does this leave us then as we attempt to peer into the China hegemony ball? Will China rise or founder? Will it see regime change or hold fast to its values?

It is as if Jacques were trying to convey something for which precise words do not exist. That something is the quintessential Chineseness of China, an essence so deeply rooted that he believes it has persisted through nine major dynasties over two thousand years, has survived both modernization and communism, and will not change in our lifetimes. To be sure, "China has changed beyond recognition. But at another level the lines of continuity are stubborn and visible." "Many of the fundamental truths of Chinese politics apply as much to the Communist period as to the earlier dynasties."

These fundamentals are China's sense of itself as a civilization; belief in its superiority to other civilizations; belief in racial hierarchy; preference for order; and acceptance of unbounded government. This cultural essence is homogenous, unitary, unchallengeable and unchanging. It is "Confucian." And because China is getting so strong, it is about to overwhelm the West. "Whatever the fortunes of the Communist regime ... the main political impact of China on the world will be its Confucian tradition, its lack of a Western-style democracy or tradition, the centrality of the state and the relative weakness of any civil society that is likely to develop."

Certainly, China is discernibly different from everywhere else. If you parachuted into Chengdu, you would not think you were in Milan or Calcutta. Jacques is perceptive on the differences among nations in cosmetics, clothing, furniture and musical tastes. But the question is: just how is China different? At the level of abstraction to which Jacques rises when discussing politics and foreign affairs, it would be hard to distinguish Chinese culture from that of Russia, France or America. All these nations are proud of their histories, value their family systems, like social order and seek national security. At that level of abstraction, China in fact is no...