The 2000 Top 20 Forecast.

• Author: Rose, Gene

It's mostly sunny throughout the nation's state legislative chambers. Expect temperatures to warm up considerably as the election season approaches. And watch out for that storm cloud developing over Washington, D.C.

There is no better metaphor for our fascination with predictions than the local TV weather personality. We're amazed when the prediction is right and downright indignant when it's wrong.

Below is a snapshot of the top 20 issues we predict the nation's state legislatures most likely will grapple with in the year 2000.

1. AN ASSAULT ON STATE SALES TAXES

   State legislators won't be introducing bills this session on the most important issue of the year. They can't. State sales taxes are taking a direct hit from the growing popularity of purchasing goods--in many cases without having to pay sales taxes--over the Internet. This could cost states as much as $15 billion a year in sales tax revenue by 2003. In 1998, congress preempted states--for three years--from addressing the effect of e-commerce on their sales tax bases. It formed a federal Advisory Commission on Electronic Commerce to study electronic retailing and report back on its findings this April. An NCSL task force is working on the issue and is presenting the commission with alternatives to bring fairness to the tax system for consumers and retailers. (See cover story of the December issue of State Legislatures.)

2. REAPING THE BENEFITS OF THE TOBACCO SETTLEMENT

   More than 80 percent of the states have met the basic requirements of the settlement--adopting legislation for programs ranging from teen smoking to health care for children. Some states are establishing endowments, trust funds, foundations or separate general fund accounts to take advantage of the unanticipated funds. Others that have yet to decide how to spend the funds have formed task forces or commissions seeking public input on how best to use the money.

3. COLUMBINE REMEMBERED

   For nearly half the state legislatures, the 2000 sessions will be the first opportunity to address school safety in the post-Columbine era. Look for diverse violence prevention efforts, including school-based interventions, peer mediation programs, school-based mental health services, gang prevention programs in schools, codes of conduct, suspensions, expulsions, alternative schools and dress codes, as well as holding parents responsible for their child's behavior. (See story on page 12)

4. A NEW TWIST ON FAMILY MEDICAL LEAVE

   The United States Department of Labor, by issuing new regulations, has proposed that states be given the option of using the unemployment insurance system to provide paid family medical leave. Supporters believe that providing paid parental leave is a family...