The State of the Nation.

• Author: Torrey, Barbara Boyle

WE ARE GOING TO BE SWAMPED with books at the millennium about the future of the United States. One way to decide which ones to read is to look in their indexes. If an index refers to Derek Bok extensively, read the book; if it doesn't, pass.

In The State of the Nation, Bok has taken on a formidable task. He has surveyed the major social changes in the United States since World War II and examined not only the causes of each trend, but also the pattern of the combined changes. His survey ranges from the economy to quality of life to opportunities to values. He examines in detail crime, race, education, children, the environment, the arts, health poverty, and old age.

And if that's not enough, he then compares the U.S. social trends to those in other industrial countries. The international comparisons show what part of U.S. trends are common to all advanced economies, such as the slowing of productivity growth, and suggest what trends may be unique to our own particular culture, such as the dramatic increase in violent crimes.

The evidence he amasses to describe the underlying tectonics of American society comes from a wealth of research and statistics. He is, however, not at the mercy of their inadequacies. Bok knows the weaknesses of both, and sifts the evidence for his conclusions. He is quick to point out when the research is equivocal and the data inadequate. This caution increases his credibility for the conclusions he does feel confident in making.

Bok's analysis shows that the United States has been making more progress than many people realize. Progress, however, has noticeably slowed in the last two decades, and compared with other countries, we are not making enough improvement. For instance, educational achievement in the United States is not as bad as people say, and is actually improving--but not as fast as in other countries. Similarly, poverty in the United States has actually decreased significantly since the 1960s. And although the poor in the United States have less income than in other countries, they are not necessarily consuming less, and therefore may not be more deprived. In race relations we've made more progress than is generally believed, but the easy gains may have already been made. And in this area, we have no easy models that can be applied from other countries.

What slowly emerges from the tapestry of data and research that Bok weaves is a wealthy nation that is under-achieving. And the question of why the...