The Spillover Effect of Recreational Marijuana Legalization on Crime: Evidence From Neighboring States of Colorado and Washington State

DOI10.1177/0022042620921359
AuthorFrancis D. Boateng,Guangzhen Wu,Xiaodong Lang
Published date01 October 2020
Date01 October 2020
Subject MatterArticles
https://doi.org/10.1177/0022042620921359
Journal of Drug Issues
2020, Vol. 50(4) 392 –409
© The Author(s) 2020
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DOI: 10.1177/0022042620921359
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Article
The Spillover Effect of Recreational
Marijuana Legalization on Crime:
Evidence From Neighboring States
of Colorado and Washington State
Guangzhen Wu1, Francis D. Boateng2,
and Xiaodong Lang3
Abstract
An ongoing debate exists about the implications of recreational marijuana legalization to public
safety. One important public concern is how recreational marijuana legalization may affect
crime in neighboring states that have not legalized. Based on Uniform Crime Report (UCR)
data from 2003 to 2017, this study used difference-in-differences (DID) analysis to examine
the potential spillover effect of recreational marijuana legalization in Colorado and Washington
State, with a special focus on the examination of the changes in the rates of a variety of crimes
in the border counties of neighboring states relative to the nonborder counties in these states
following Colorado’s and Washington’s legalization. Results provide some evidence suggesting
a spillover crime reduction effect of legalization, as reflected by the significant decreases in the
rates of property crime, larceny, and simple assault in the Colorado region that includes six
neighboring states. Results also suggest that the effects of marijuana legalization on crime in
neighboring states vary based on crime type and state.
Keywords
recreational marijuana, legalization, spillover effect, crime rate
Introduction
Since Colorado and Washington State legalized marijuana for recreational purposes in 2012, the
District of Columbia and nine other states—Alaska, California, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts,
Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, and Vermont—have followed this trend and have adopted the most
expansive laws legalizing marijuana for recreational use that may include possession, produc-
tion, and retail sale of marijuana. Paralleling this pivotal policy change is an ongoing discussion
about its effects, both potential and actual, on crime. Proponents of legalization argue that legal-
ization would reduce crime because of not only the decriminalization of marijuana possession
1The University of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA
2The University of Mississippi, University, USA
3Thomas Roney LLC, Dallas, TX, USA
Corresponding Author:
Guangzhen Wu, Department of Sociology, University of Utah, 380 S 1530 E. Rm 301, Salt Lake City,
UT 84112-0250, USA.
Email: guangzhen.wu@soc.utah.edu
921359JODXXX10.1177/0022042620921359Journal of Drug IssuesWu et al.
research-article2020
Wu et al. 393
but also a reduction in the underground marijuana market that is believed to be fertile soil for
violent crime (Pedersen & Skardhamar, 2010). Opponents, in contrast, assert that legalization
would increase crime because marijuana is thought to be the gateway to harder drugs such as
heroin and cocaine, and hence legalization would increase the numbers of illicit drug users who
may resort to predatory crime to support their drug use (Cleveland & Wiebe, 2008).
Despite the trend of legalization of marijuana at the state level, it remains illegal under federal
law. Scholars, policy makers, and the public are concerned about the consequences of legaliza-
tion for crime and public safety, which are still largely unclear, as reflected by the aforemen-
tioned opposing views about whether legalization will increase or decrease crime. Other states
considering legalization need more empirical evidence based on methodologically sound research
to guide those decisions. However, a review of literature suggests studies examining the impact
of recreational marijuana legalization on crime are still very limited (Brinkman & Mok-Lamme,
2019; Dragone et al., 2019; Freisthler et al., 2017; Hao & Cowan, 2020; Hughes et al., 2020; Lu
et al., 2019; Makin et al., 2019). Notably, although there is growing scholarly attention paid to
legalization’s effects on crime-related outcomes in the states that have legalized, with an empha-
sis on Colorado and Washington State—the two states that first legalized marijuana for recre-
ational use—research examining how legalization affects crime in neighboring states (states that
have not legalized recreational marijuana but share borders with legalized states) is very rare.
Indeed, because of the reduction in legal (not illegal to buy and possess marijuana in legalized
states) and financial (price drop for marijuana) costs as a result of legalization, it is reasonable to
expect that individuals living near the border of legalized states may cross the border to buy mari-
juana and smuggle it back to their home states (Hao & Cowan, 2020), which may affect the mari-
juana black market and consumption in neighboring states.
It is noteworthy that marijuana legalization may show its impact even before retail sales of
recreational marijuana starts, because of the favorable social environment associated with mari-
juana purchase, possession, and use, created by the passage of the laws legalizing marijuana for
recreational use. It has been observed that the passage of these laws was associated with a greater
social acceptability of this drug, and an increased cannabis use and cannabis-related problems
among adult users (Cerdá et al., 2020; Damrongplasit et al., 2010; Kerr et al., 2018; Miller et al.,
2017; Wallace et al., 2020). Scholars have also noted a crime-reducing effect of the recreational
marijuana law itself when using a postlegalization period that did not cover retail sales (Dragone
et al., 2019). Regarding the spillover effect, there is also evidence suggesting that marijuana pos-
session arrests (in border areas of neighboring states) and marijuana trafficking have substan-
tially increased in the neighboring states of Colorado and Washington following their passages of
recreational marijuana laws (Hao & Cowan, 2020; Wichita, 2013). Moreover, police agencies in
the border counties of neighboring states did not wait until the opening of recreational marijuana
dispensaries in these legalized states to increase their law enforcement efforts on dealing with the
flow of marijuana across the state lines. In fact, such focused efforts were typically made follow-
ing adjacent states (e.g., Colorado and Washington) relaxing cannabis laws, as reflected by more
resources devoted to addressing the interstate-smuggling problem and other drug-related crime
(Hao & Cowan, 2020; Kelly, 2013; Ward et al., 2019). Arguably, these changes in law enforce-
ment on marijuana-related crime in neighboring states may affect public safety in these states
(e.g., potential crime deterrence effect), especially for border counties. Given these changing
dynamics associated with recreational marijuana laws, and also the gateway hypothesis and the
association between the marijuana black market and crime, it is worthwhile to examine whether
the rates for a variety of crimes in the border areas around legalized states would change follow-
ing legalization.
This study is intended to address these knowledge gaps. Specifically, it contributes to the lit-
erature by expanding marijuana legalization research to surrounding states and focusing on its
potential spillover effects. This study also adds to the literature by examining the impact of

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