The Simplest Government Heuristic of All: Citizens Infer that Governing Parties are Pro-European Union

• Author: M. Christine Phillips,James Adams,Luca Bernardi
• DOI: 10.1177/0010414020970220
• Published date: 01 June 2021
• Date: 01 June 2021
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414020970220

Comparative Political Studies

2021, Vol. 54(7) 1227 –1255

© The Author(s) 2020

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DOI: 10.1177/0010414020970220

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Article

The Simplest

Government Heuristic

of All: Citizens Infer that

Governing Parties are

Pro-European Union

James Adams1, Luca Bernardi2,

and M. Christine Phillips3

Abstract

Previous research documents that citizens apply a “coalition heuristic”

to infer that governing coalition partners share more similar policies and

ideologies than are implied by the statements in their election manifestos.

We propose even simpler government-related heuristics citizens can apply

to infer party positions on European integration: the current government

heuristic that currently governing parties are more pro-Europe than

opposition parties, and the long-term opposition heuristic that opposition

parties that have never governed are less pro-Europe than opposition

parties with previous governing experience. We report theoretical and

empirical analyses of survey data from 24 European Union member

states, which substantiate that citizens apply these heuristics, which have

consequences for citizens’ policy beliefs and their party support. We also

find evidence that citizens respond to policy as measured through election

manifestos and expert surveys.

1UC Davis, Davis, USA

2University of LIverpool, Liverpool, UK

3Texas A&M University College Station, College Station, TX, USA

Corresponding Author:

James Adams, UC Davis, One Shields Avenus, Davis, 95616, USA.

Email: jfadams@ucdavis.edu

970220CPSXXX10.1177/0010414020970220Comparative Political StudiesAdams et al.

research-article2020

1228 Comparative Political Studies 54(7)

Keywords

European Union, political parties, voters

Introduction

Several recent studies analyze the heuristics citizens use to infer parties’ and

politicians’ ideologies and policy behavior. In the context of parliamentary

democracies, Fortunato and Stevenson (2013; see also Fortunato & Adams,

2015) show that citizens infer that the partners in coalition governments share

more similar ideologies than are implied by the policy tones of their election

manifestos, a finding that Adams et al. (2016) extend to the European integra-

tion issue. Further, Adams et al. (2020) show that citizens cue off of social

welfare policy outputs to update their perceptions of governing parties’ Left-

Right positions.

We extend this research by arguing for and empirically testing an even

simpler heuristic citizens can apply to infer party positions on the increas-

ingly salient issue of European integration: namely, that all else equal—

including the policy tones of parties’ election manifestos and parties’ positions

estimated through expert surveys—governing parties are more pro-Europe

than opposition parties. We further elaborate this idea into two, related, heu-

ristics: the current government heuristic that currently governing parties are

more pro-Europe than opposition parties, and the long-term opposition heu-

ristic that among current opposition parties, those that have never governed

are more Eurosceptic than parties with previous governing experience. We

present theoretical reasons why we expect citizens to apply these heuristics,

and we report empirical analyses of survey data from 24 European Union

member states that substantiate that citizens rely heavily on these heuristics,

particularly the long-term opposition heuristic. We show that citizens also

respond to the policy tones of parties’ election manifestos, and that citizens’

party placements track those of political experts. We believe that our findings

are important because, as we also show, these heuristics influence citizens’

policy beliefs and their party support.

Our findings pertain to mass-elite linkages and to parties’ election strate-

gies. With respect to strategy, our findings imply that parties that are invited

to join the cabinet should weigh the effects of governing on their policy repu-

tations. In particular, long-term opposition parties entering government for

the first time should project that their cabinet status may shift their images in

a sharply pro-Europe direction. Given the emergence of European integration

(and immigration) as an increasingly salient electoral cleavage (Hooghe

et al., 2002; Hooghe & Marks, 2018), this reputational effect has implications

for parties’ electoral success.