THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR: IS AFRICA THE BEAUTIFUL BRIDE?

INTRODUCTION

Over the last decade, Africa has recorded steady economic growth. However, in 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the region experienced a 1.9 percent contraction--the worst on record. (1) 2021 saw 4.5 percent growth, driven mainly by a rebound in commodity prices and easing of social restrictions. Unfortunately, 2022 has become an increasingly challenging environment due to Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. This has caused supply chain disruptions and food insecurity, with inflation reaching its worst reading since 2008. (2) Upwards of 400 million people in Africa are living in poverty, and this situation had already been further exacerbated by the pandemic. (3) Political instability, conflicts and security issues, food crises, climate change, and environmental degradation present additional challenges. Moreover, fiscal deficits and external financing jeopardize macroeconomic stability. (4) As a result, economic policymakers are confronted with a multifaceted and complex policy environment with difficult tradeoffs to address current and long-term issues.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine started in February 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea following a contentious referendum. The conflict has since displaced millions of people and claimed thousands of lives. The conflict grew over a seven-year period as Russians and local proxy groups took land in Ukraine's Donbas area. The aggression escalated into a fullfledged conflict after Volodymyr Zelensky was elected President of Ukraine in 2019. By September 2020, Zelensky had given his approval to a new national security plan that categorized Russia as an aggressor and listed NATO membership as one of Ukraine's main objectives in terms of both defence and foreign policy. Between October and November 2021, Russia began a massive build-up of troops and military equipment along its border with Ukraine. As a result of globaliation, what could easily be a Europeanonly issue has become an issue of global relevance and concern.

America's purported obsession with bringing Ukraine into NATO and making it a Western bulwark on Russia's border has been considered a major source of Russian aggression against Ukraine. There is also a school of thought that believes the war was mainly driven by the imperial ambitions of Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose long-term ambition is to not only conquer Ukraine but other countries as well--all for the purpose of creating a greater Russia that bears some resemblance to the former Soviet Union. (5) Regardless of what the actual cause of the war might have been, the focus of this article is to understand the position of Africa in terms of economic diplomacy, worldview, and international affairs.

THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL IMPACTS OF THE WAR ON AFRICA

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a global economic shock. Oil and food prices have increased, leading to external and fiscal balance strains, as well as food security concerns. This shock is compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, and other security risks. Economic activity in Africa is expected to grow by 3.8 percent this year, and 4 percent over the medium-term. (6) However, this is not enough to make up for the losses from the pandemic, particularly the setback to progress toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.

Russia is under sanctions imposed by the West. As a result, many Russian contracts have been cancelled, financial accounts in the West frozen, and Russian currency suppressed. However, as the world's second-largest oilproducing country and a significant wheat-producing nation, Russia also has a financial impact...