THE ROLE OF BRAZIL IN THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT: A POTENTIAL PEACE ENABLER?

• Author: Marcondes, Danilo

INTRODUCTION

What Russian President Vladimir Putin called a "special military operation" of short duration has turned into a war with thousands of dead and wounded, an intense refugee crisis and population displacement, and an immense financial and material cost for both countries. At the regional and global levels, according to the World Bank, the war also contributed to an energy and food crisis, increasing inflation, and a slowing down of the world economy, with important consequences for the year 2023. (1)

If the results are so disastrous, why is the war not replaced by negotiations that try to build a lasting peace? Wars usually start with the illusion that they will be quick and won at low financial, material, and human costs.

This illusion contributes to making them easier to start than to end. Often, the human sacrifices and material losses consumed in the conflict make the possibility of a political solution more difficult if the intended objectives were not achieved if one of the opponents gained some advantage. The disadvantaged side may consider pursuing peace as a sign of weakness. Therefore, it will be able to continue fighting in the hope that by providing more human and material resources to the conflict, it will be able to alter the course of the war to its advantage, even if this means the possibility of making its situation even worse. This dynamic can be called the "war trap." (2)

The war between Russia and Ukraine is an example of a war trap. The two countries are involved in a process of political-diplomatic paralysis. Although the war is expected to end in the future, nobody knows when and how that future will arrive. Nevertheless, Brazil, a member of BRICS, is one of the countries defending a diplomatic solution to the conflict. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, in office since January 2023, has been advocating that it is necessary to put together a group of countries to bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiation table. The purpose of this article is to analyze Brazil's diplomatic position regarding the conflict, including its offer of serving as a peace broker.

Brazil's offer to play a potential mediating role can be understood as part of a government initiative of relaunching Brazil's foreign policy after four years of the Jair Bolsonaro administration (2019-2022). Promoting Brazil's mediation credentials is part of the "Brazil is back" strategy that has been put forward by current President Lula da Silva. (i)

The article is divided in the following sections: the first section provides a brief discussion of Brazilian relations with both Russia and Ukraine up to the events of February 2022. The second section discusses Brazilian perceptions of the February 2022 invasion. The next section addresses Brazil's role in different international organizations dealing with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, followed by a section discussing President Lula's proposal for a peace club to help solve the conflict. We conclude by claiming that the Brazilian initiative is part of the "Brazil is back" narrative. Nevertheless, this task will face challenging difficulties, especially because Brazil will be trying to mediate a war in which great power interests are at stake.

BRAZIL'S RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA AND UKRAINE

Brazilian mediation credentials derive from it being one of the few countries with diplomatic relations with all UN member states. In addition, Brazil has historically played an active role in different coalitions, such as the G-77 and the G-20, has spent the most time as an elected member in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), and has long valued multilateralism as part of its foreign policy strategy. (3) The Brazilian Constitution establishes that Brazil will act in its international relations by adopting principles such as national independence and self-determination of peoples, non-intervention, equality among states, and the adoption of peaceful means to deal with international disputes. (4) Brazilian diplomacy has historically acted based on these principles. (5)

Brazil established relations with the Russian Empire in 1828, though relations were interrupted in the period 1918-1945 because of the 1917 Revolution and the establishment of the Soviet Union. Relations were reestablished in 1945 due the Second World War but then interrupted once more because of Brazil's strong anti-Communism. Relations were only restored in 1961, during Brazil's short-lived "independent foreign policy" period. After the end of the Cold War, the two countries created a Russian-Brazilian High Level Cooperation Commission in 1997. In 2002, the two countries celebrated a long-term strategic partnership, while then-President Fernando Henrique Cardoso visited Russia. President Vladimir Putin then visited Brazil in 2004 in what became the first visit by a Russian head of state. Brazil-Russia engagement expanded after the creation of the BRICS mechanism in 2009. A series of visits were exchanged during the administrations of Presidents Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (2003-2010), Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016), Michel Temer (2016-2018) and Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2022).

Brazil recognized Ukraine's independence in December 1991, and diplomatic relations were established in February 1992. President Lula da Silva made a state visit to Ukraine in December 2009, and Brazil hosted a state visit by President Viktor Yanukovich in October 2011. President Jair Bolsonaro met with Ukrainian presidents in January and October 2019.

In addition to understanding Brazil's bilateral relations with both the Russian Federation and Ukraine, it is also worth understanding how Brazil responded to the 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea. In May 2014, the Brazilian Congress invited Brazil's Foreign Minister, Ambassador Luiz Fernando Figueiredo, to explain Brazil's position regarding the situation in the Crimea. According to the Foreign Minister:

Since the beginning of the crisis, the [Brazilian] government has stressed the need for dialogue, and moderation from all parties, in order for a peaceful solution to be achieved with respect for human rights and democratic institutions ... The situation requires prudence, moderation and a sense of historical responsibility from all parties involved. (6) When specifically asked about why Brazil had abstained on a resolution (UNGA Resolution 68/262, adopted on March 27, 2014), (ii) questioning the popular consultation voting in the Crimea region, Foreign Minister Figueiredo indicated that:

The resolution passed judgment on Ukrainian internal affairs, including regarding the validity of the popular consultation... Our solidarity with Ukraine exists regardless of how we voted on the resolution. We abstained together with 58 countries, (iii) including many from our region. We were not isolated against Ukraine. (7) Latin America was particularly divided on the vote. Countries closely aligned with Russia, such as Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, supported the Russian position regarding the referendum. Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay all abstained, while countries more aligned with the U.S., such as Colombia, voted in favor of the resolution. (8) Russian actions in Crimea were not seen in a positive light by the Brazilian population. A worldwide survey conducted in July 2014 showed that most Brazilians (59%) had an unfavorable perception of Russia, compared to 24% who had a favorable view. (9)

During the crisis that preceded the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, President Jair Bolsonaro took an ambiguous position. On an official trip to Russia on February 16, 2022, Bolsonaro and Putin discussed measures to increase cooperation between the two countries in several areas, primarily focusing on fertilizers (which are essential for the Brazilian agribusiness sector) as well as the prospects for strengthening military cooperation. After the meeting, their joint communique emphasized the need for conflict resolution by peaceful means and respect for the UN Charter. (10)

Nevertheless, in an interview in the same month, just days after the Russian invasion, Bolsonaro stated that Brazil's position would be one of neutrality and said, "We want peace, but we don't want to bring consequences for Brazil." When asked about the Russian attacks, Bolsonaro stated that Putin would be concentrating the attacks only in two regions of southern Ukraine in which most of the population decided in referendums "to become independent by approaching Russia. A decision on my part could bring serious risks to Brazil ... the country needs fertilizers." (11)

Prior to the February 24 invasion of Ukrainian territory, Brazil and Ukraine had celebrated 30 years of diplomatic relations. In a commemorative event at the residence of the Brazilian Ambassador on February 15, (2022), the First Deputy-Minister of the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated:

Today, Ukraine sees Brazil as a key partner in America and also globally and as a partner we can trust and rely on. Since 2009, when our relations have reached strategic level, Ukraine and Brazil have committed themselves to developing a long-term cooperation, not only in the political field, but also economic, cultural and scientific. Solidarity, friendship and mutual trust is the basis of our relations. (12) Brazil, Cuba, and Mexico are the only Latin American and Caribbean countries to maintain resident embassies in Kyiv, (13) which provides the Brazilian government with an advantage in terms of access to direct information regarding the situation on the ground. Their active presence has proved particularly important regarding the conflict which has since emerged. The timing of Russia's act was particularly delicate for Brazil, since during his February 16 visit, Bolsonaro stated that "Brazil...