The Research Utility of the National Violent Death Reporting System for Understanding Homicide Trends

• Published date: 01 February 2024
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231189985
• Author: Ethan M. Rogers,Jonathan Davis
• Date: 01 February 2024

https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231189985

Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice

2024, Vol. 40(1) 26 –47

© The Author(s) 2023

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DOI: 10.1177/10439862231189985

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Article

The Research Utility of the

National Violent Death

Reporting System for

Understanding Homicide

Trends

Ethan M. Rogers1 and Jonathan Davis1

Abstract

Homicide trend research has relied heavily on the same two data systems for

decades. The current article highlights the research utility of a newer database—the

National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS)—for examining the contours

of homicide change. First, we describe the history, design, and availability of the

NVDRS, and review past homicide and longitudinal studies using these data. Second,

we discuss two features of the data system that researchers should consider when

conducting homicide trend analyses: (a) data availability and representativeness and

(b) data completeness. Third, we demonstrate a strong degree of correspondence

between NVDRS homicide victimization trends and trends from other data systems.

Fourth, we illustrate the ways in which the NVDRS can enrich our understanding of

homicide trends by examining how homicide characteristics changed during the two

recent homicide spikes from 2014 to 2016 and 2019 to 2020.

Keywords

trends, homicide spike, victimization, National Violent Death Reporting System

Criminologists have devoted extensive empirical attention to contemporary homicide

trends. Considerable insights about the contours of homicide have been provided by

1The University of Iowa, Iowa City, USA

Corresponding Author:

Ethan M. Rogers, Crime & Justice Policy Research Program, Public Policy Center, The University of Iowa,

132 Public Policy Research Building, 605 E. Jefferson Street, Iowa City, IA 52242, USA.

Email: ethan-rogers@uiowa.edu

1189985CCJXXX10.1177/10439862231189985Journal of Contemporary Criminal JusticeRogers and Davis

research-article2023

Rogers and Davis 27

studies describing the prolonged boom during the 1960s and 1970s (LaFree, 1998,

1999), the concentrated surge during the crack cocaine era (Blumstein et al., 2000;

Cook & Laub, 1998), and the long-run downward trajectory in the 1990s (Blumstein

& Wallman, 2000; Zimring, 2007). Scholarly interest in trend analyses has once again

been reignited by recent unexpected homicide spikes (Rosenfeld, 2018). The abrupt

20% increase in homicide victimization rates from 2014 to 2016, for instance, moti-

vated a special issue on its descriptive dimensions and potential sources (Rosenfeld,

2019). The approximate 30% increase in homicide victimization from 2019 to 2020

has garnered even greater attention (Gramlich, 2021; Kegler, 2022; Rosenfeld,

Boxerman, et al., 2023). Meaningful documentation of such homicide trends is a foun-

dational first step toward evaluating explanations for emerging patterns and develop-

ing short-term forecasts of future change (Baumer et al., 2018).

Descriptive inquiries into homicide trends, however, are limited by gaps in the cur-

rent national-level data infrastructure (Baumer et al., 2018; Tostlebe et al., 2021). The

vast majority of studies have relied on two sources of aggregate-level data to study

homicide change in the United States: (a) the National Center for Health Statistics’s

(NCHS) National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) and (b) the Federal Bureau of

Investigation’s (FBI) Supplementary Homicide Reports (SHR) (Regoeczi & Banks,

2014). Although the NVSS and SHR have yielded tremendous knowledge about homi-

cide trends, their limited number of variables leave much to be understood about

homicide over time and across groups (Baumer et al., 2018). Descriptive questions of

homicide change have been largely restricted to examinations of victim and suspect

demographics (e.g., sex, race, and age) and firearm use (Berg, 2019; Rosenfeld & Fox,

2019). Identifying data collection systems that improve our capacity to document

changes in the nature of homicide should be a priority of homicide trend researchers.

The National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS) offers opportunities for

more rigorous inquiries into homicide trends. The NVDRS is a state-based surveil-

lance system that collects information on all violent deaths, including homicide.

Drawing from law enforcement and medical examiner reports, death certificates, and

toxicology reports, abstractors collect extensive information about homicide victims,

their suspects, and the circumstances that precipitated the incidents. Yet, to date, this

database has been underutilized by criminologists (Sanchez et al., 2022, p. 72). While

NVDRS research has increased markedly in the past decade, just a quarter of these

studies have focused on homicide (Nazarov et al., 2019). Even fewer studies—we

could find just three—have studied homicide trends.

In the current article, we discuss the research utility of the NVDRS for understand-

ing homicide trends. First, we review the background of the NVDRS. We provide a

brief history of the data system and summarize past research using these data for homi-

cide and longitudinal analyses. Second, we highlight two important considerations

when using the database for trend analyses: (a) data availability and representativeness

and (b) data completeness. Third, we examine the extent to which NVDRS homicide

victimization trends correspond with NVSS and SHR trends. We compare rates over

time, as well as examine recent homicide spikes across victim demographic groups.

Fourth, we illustrate how the NVDRS enriches our understanding of homicide trends