The Puzzling Politics of the Center.

• Author: BRESLER, ROBERT J.

THE 20TH CENTURY ended with numerous changes that will affect the 21st. Empires and totalitarian systems crumbled; the globalized economy has given the nation state an uncertain future; and information technology is transforming business, education, medical care, and personal connections to each other. Walk into any office, classroom, or hospital in many parts of the world today and you will find it a different place from just a decade ago. For America in particular, this technological revolution has made the economy more productive and competitive than ever. In contrast to other times, young men no longer face the possibility of military service; young women can enter any profession without fear of legal or even social barriers; and job prospects for those with skills and ambition have rarely been as promising.

These changes have had to alter our politics. When Ronald Reagan assumed the presidency in 1981, he had to contend with an economy in crisis, an almost-out-of-control nuclear arms race, American global leadership in doubt, and a culture suffused with pessimism. Unless a grave unforeseen event befalls the U.S., the next president should have no problems of such magnitude.

As the times improve, the lines that divide liberals and conservatives, Republicans and Democrats, become increasingly indistinct. The four leading candidates for the presidency--Al Gore, Bill Bradley, George W. Bush, and John McCain -- have a record of pragmatism and moderation and are crowding the center. All of them agree on the general principle of free trade; all supported intervention in Kosovo; none is willing to dismantle affirmative action programs; all want to put more resources into education; none wants to increase taxes; three (Gore, Bush, and McCain) support some kind of tax cut; and all lean toward tax credits in health care and education.

No matter what the outcome of the election, the nation will not veer far away from center. Even if the Republicans regain the presidency and keep control of the Congress, changes are likely to be on the margin. The tax cut may be larger; the states may have slightly more control over Federal educational funds; some programs (but not many) may be cut; and defense spending may increase slightly. Having been burned on the issue in the past, the Republicans will not dare to alter the funding of Social Security and Medicare without bipartisan support. School vouchers could not pass the last Republican Congress, and its...