The Prediction of Youth Recidivism in a Spanish Roma Population by the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI)

• Author: Juan E. Adrián,Aitana Gomis-Pomares,Lidón Villanueva
• DOI: 10.1177/0306624X211022668
• Published date: 01 June 2022
• Date: 01 June 2022
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/0306624X211022668

International Journal of

Offender Therapy and

Comparative Criminology

2022, Vol. 66(8) 791 –806

© The Author(s) 2021

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DOI: 10.1177/0306624X211022668

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Article

The Prediction of Youth

Recidivism in a Spanish

Roma Population by the

Youth Level of Service/Case

Management Inventory

(YLS/CMI)

Aitana Gomis-Pomares1,

Lidón Villanueva1, and Juan E. Adrián1

Abstract

Despite the increasing interest in the accuracy of youth risk assessment tools, the

amount of research with ethnic minorities remains relatively modest. For this reason,

the main goal of this study was to assess the predictive validity and disparate impact

of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) in a Spanish

ethnic minority. The participants consisted of 88 Roma youth offenders and 135 non-

Roma youth offenders, aged between 14 and 17 years old. Their risk of recidivism was

assessed by means of the YLS/CMI Inventory and their recidivism rate was obtained

from the Juvenile Justice Department. Results showed that the Inventory presented

slightly lower predictive validity for the Roma group. Moreover, Roma juveniles

presented higher risk scores and lower strength scores than non-Roma juveniles.

These results supported the idea that professionals must therefore be aware of these

cultural differences in predictive validity and the existent potentiality for disparate

impact.

Keywords

Roma population, risk assessment, youth offenders, predictive validity, recidivism

1Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain

Corresponding Author:

Aitana Gomis-Pomares, Developmental Psychology Department, Universitat Jaume I, Avda. Vicent Sos

Baynat, s/n, Castellón 12071, Spain.

Email: apomares@uji.es

1022668IJOXXX10.1177/0306624X211022668International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative CriminologyGomis-Pomares et al.

research-article2021

792 International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology 66(8)

Introduction

Despite the growth in the use and efficacy of the risk assessment instruments in recent

years, the amount of research with ethnic minorities remains relatively modest

(Schmidt et al., 2020; Threadcraft-Walker et al., 2018). In fact, some authors even

defend that by now, we cannot explain cross-cultural differences in risk assessment;

therefore, these tools should be used with caution in these settings (Schmidt et al.,

2020). The inclusion of demographic, socioeconomic, family, and neighborhood vari-

ables in these tools are likely to have a racial impact (Starr, 2014). Given that most risk

assessment tools have been validated in dominant White majority groups, the question

about their ability to predict accurately for minority groups emerges (Olver et al.,

2009; Rembert et al., 2014; Wormith & Bonta, 2018).

These previous studies in the field of risk assessment and minorities have been

concerned with two different aspects: any instrument must be shown to predict recidi-

vism with similar accuracy across different groups, avoiding test bias (predictive

validity), and the use of an instrument might not yield average score differences

between racial groups, avoiding the intensification of racial disparities (disparate

impact), (Skeem & Lowenkamp, 2016). Even if an instrument perfectly measures risk

(predictive validity), its use still may be unfair (disparate impact), as this latter concept

is basically moral or social rather than empirical and psychometric (Skeem &

Lowenkamp, 2016). Regarding the first aspect, predictive validity, while some studies

found no support for the test bias for adult and youth offenders (Lowder et al., 2019;

Skeem & Lowenkamp, 2016), others presented significantly less predictive models for

recidivism in minorities (Campbell et al., 2018; Schmidt et al., 2018).

The few studies explicitly addressing the disparate impact issue also showed con-

tradictory results. Some studies found mean differences between ethnic groups that

were relevant to disparate impact (Rubino et al., 2020; Skeem & Lowenkamp, 2016),

whereas others did not (Villanueva et al., 2019). Both aspects, predictive validity, and

disparate impact of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/

CMI), will be addressed in this study in relation to Roma minority in Spain.

Most research on the use of risk assessment tools with minorities has been con-

ducted in countries such as the United States, Canada, and Australia. Nevertheless, one

of the largest majority ethnic minorities in some regions of Europe is the Roma popu-

lation (Vazsonyi et al., 2016) and despite this, research on Roma minority remains

scarce. Nowadays, Roma population, immigrants and ex-colonial citizens build up the

ethnic and racial configuration in Spanish culture. In this line, it is quite paradoxical

that although Roma population “has lived uninterruptedly in Spain for almost four

centuries, yet they are still regarded as another, distinct from normative Spanishness”

(Santaolalla, 2002, p. 58). Without a doubt, this reflects their social and representa-

tional discrimination. For instance, the Roma population accounts for 725,000 to

750,000 people, approximately 1.5% of the total Spanish population (Ministry of

Health, Consumer Affairs and Social Welfare, 2020) and for 21.3% of juvenile offend-

ers (Uceda-Maza & Alonso, 2017), being over-represented in the Spanish criminal

justice system (Laparra, 2011). This fact would challenge the “fairness” component in