The precarious export path.

• Author: Barry, Doug

After years of steady growth, Alaska's exports to the rest of the world are starting to sputter. While negative numbers in the first quarter of 1993 may be due to "cyclical" demand for commodity products, another conclusion is that substantially larger future growth will come from value we add to our trees, fish, oil and minerals. It's also possible that we may have to run faster to stay in the same place.

In 1992, Alaska exports reached about $4.8 billion. This figure includes about $1.7 million in air freight, a category consisting of stuff that lands at our international airports, sometimes gets shuffled into the belly of another jet freighter, and takes off for markets in Europe and Asia.

Alaska receives the most value from its other export categories: fish, timber, minerals and petroleum products. In 1992, Alaska exported more than $1.9 billion worth of fish; $550 million of timber products; $223 million of minerals and $365 million of petroleum products.

In the case of seafood, Japan purchased nearly 90 percent of our exports, and Korea accounted for about 6 percent.

Alaska's exports for the first quarter of 1993 are down 16 percent from the first quarter of 1992 and may show an overall decline by year's end, the first decline after six years of high growth. The primary reason for the slide is quota restrictions on crab and pollock, resulting in lower harvests. Another reason is the lingering recession in Europe and especially in Japan, the most important market for nearly all of our exports.

Seafood. Another factor in the seafood sector, down almost 30 percent in the first quarter, is that the "Americanization" of fisheries off Alaska's coast is now complete, and future growth must come from new markets and market channels, and from value-added products like salmon ham, chowder and microwavable entrees.

In the short term, lower prices help win back markets for Alaska wild salmon from producers of farmed salmon, such as Chile and Norway.

Coal. The value of Alaska's coal exports, down almost 32 percent in the first quarter, will probably end the year lower than in 1992. In order to keep Alaska coal competitive with Australian and other coal, Usibelli Coal Mine lowered prices to Suneel, its Korean customer. Alaska coal will be a tough sell until demand in Asia increases as expected later in the decade.

Petroleum Products. The value of petroleum products was down almost 12 percent. The situation may improve somewhat later this year if...