THE POTENTIAL FOR AGILE: Industry touting flexible vehicle models to better secure space assets.

• Author: Machi, Vivienne
• Position: Space

An array of new agile launch capabilities being developed by the commercial sector to send satellites into orbit could provide added resiliency to the U.S. space architecture.

Multiple existing and new industry players are developing dedicated small satellite launch vehicles to address growing requirements, according to a recent report by Frost & Sullivan titled, "Small Satellite Launch Services Market, Quarterly Update Q1 2018, Forecast to 2030." The firm predicted a launch demand for over 11,600 small satellites over the next 12 years, with a projected revenue of $119 billion. The existing rideshare launch capacity will not be adequate enough to meet future needs, the report said.

Over the past decade, a wave of new companies--benefiting from the deep pocketbooks of Silicon Valley billionaires--have invested in developing rapid, mobile and affordable launch systems, bringing a new momentum to the commercial market.

Entrepreneurs such as Amazon leader Jeff Bezos; Elon Musk, who co-developed PayPal and launched Tesla; Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen; and Virgin founder Richard Branson have created their own rapid launch companies--Blue Origin, SpaceX, Stratolaunch and Virgin Orbit, respectively. Their resources "have allowed their companies to make significant progress and push through the Valley of Death' where it might not have been possible if you had to justify the bottom line to a board of directors," said Randolph Kendall, vice president of launch program operations at the Aerospace Corp., during a panel discussion at the annual Space Symposium in Colorado Springs, Colorado.

The efforts underway to disrupt the commercial launch market are plentiful. Stratolaunch is building the world's largest airplane, also called Stratolaunch, to eventually release rockets into space from a variety of locations. It has a wing span of 385 feet and is built by Scaled Composites, another Allen-founded company. It can fly 1,000 nautical miles, loiter for an hour and then launch a vehicle into orbit. First flight is expected around the end of summer, with launches beginning in late 2019 or early 2020, said Steve Nixon, Stratolaunch's vice president for strategic development.

The aircraft will initially carry an Orbital ATK Pegasus expendable rocket, Nixon told National Defense. The three-stage air launch system can deliver small satellites weighing up to 1,000 pounds into low-Earth orbit in about 10 minutes, according to the company. Orbital ATK was recently acquired by Northrop Grumman and is now known as Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems.

The aircraft will be able to carry...