The Pathway Forward for the Power Sector
| Author | Roger Martella |
| Position | Vice president, chief sustainability officer, at General Electric. The opinions are the author's and not any employer |
| Pages | 59-59 |
SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2021 | 59
Reprinted by permission from The Environmental Forum®, September/October 2021.
Copyright © 2021, Environmental Law Institute®, Washington, D.C. www.eli.org.
THE DEBATE
The Pathway
Forward for the
Power Sector
By Roger Martella
W
hen it comes to
achieving President
Biden’s goal of a
50-plus percent re-
duction in greenhouse gas emissions
by 2030, not all sectors are created
equal. Although the president has not
set sector targets, basic math teaches
that because 50 percent is an average,
some will see more ambitious targets
in the upcoming decade.
Among those sectors generating
higher expectations is the power sector.
Observers see emissions from power
easier to abate by 2030 relative to
transportation, industry, and agricul-
ture. us, much attention is focused
on the technology, innovation, policy,
and law to drive deeper decarboniza-
tion of power.
e pathway for power begins
with where it’s come from. e In-
ternational Energy Agency provides a
starting point: in the 14 years between
2005 (the Biden baseline) and 2019,
emissions from the sector declined 31
percent. To meet the president’s average
goal, the sector has 19 percent to go,
but expectations are to over-perform.
To achieve deeper decarbonization
beyond 50 percent by 2030, three de-
velopments must align.
First, accelerating renewables is the
most immediate priority, but chal-
lenges must be addressed. For example,
while the next generation of oshore
wind technology is ready to be in-
stalled, regulatory delays have stalled
deployment. Here, the Biden admin-
istration in a short time has worked
to address permit bottlenecks and ap-
proved the rst full-scale oshore wind
project, Vineyard Wind. But to suc-
ceed on this timeline will require more
regulatory resources and streamlining.
e administration, Congress, indus-
try and stakeholder will have to work
closely together to properly dene tax
incentives, scal stimulus, and tari
policies to ensure investments will lead
to measurable benets.
Second, natural gas is key to any
solution. e numbers speak for
themselves: between 2005 and 2019,
emissions went down steeply while
natural gas use doubled to 38 percent
of the nation’s generation. Looking
forward, the gas sector similarly can
help reduce emissions by strictly con-
trolling methane. e country can also
switch from coal to natural gas, pro-
viding a baseload that serves as a force
multiplier for more renewables. Under
the IEA’s projections, power emission
reductions will surpass 50 percent and
reach 53 percent (vs. 2005) while gas
grows to 42 percent of generation in
2030. Looking beyond this scenario,
more switching from coal to gas can
drive emissions down further, at least
65 percent, with reductions of 70-plus
percent with more renewables.
ird, reducing emissions is not
enough. e grid is confronting grow-
ing risks in extreme weather events, in-
creasing demand, more variable energy,
and cyber security. Modernizing the
grid, including physical infrastructure
and digital upgrades, to make it more
resilient while reducing emissions are
mutually achievable goals.
Although power can over-perform
this decade, innovation is the most
important element of longer-term
success. Innovating breakthrough
technologies such as carbon capture
and sequestration, hydrogen as a fuel,
and small modular nuclear reactors
will be key to realizing the next tier of
decarbonization goals while ensuring a
resilient energy ecosystem.
At the outset, there is reason for
optimism about the success of these
goals regardless of legal regimes. e
IEA scenario above shows the power
sector realized signicant reductions
during an era without comprehensive
regulation. is is due to innovation,
corporate social responsibility initia-
tives, subnational regulations including
renewable energy standards, and the
impact of NGOs.
Having said that, well designed law
and policy can bring more certainty
to outcomes. With a closely divided
Congress, piecemeal approaches are
more likely than a comprehensive
package for climate generally or power
specically. On the Hill, it will be key
for Congress to create the right reforms
for streamlining renewable approvals
while creating nancial incentives for
renewables, grid improvements, and
breakthrough technologies and pilot
projects. ese concepts warrant bipar-
tisan support.
e Environmental Protection
Agency is likely to complement this
approach with a focus on emissions
from new and existing coal plants and
gas turbines. Regulatory eorts to
focus on technology-based standards
“inside the fenceline” will help avoid
the legal controversies and delays of the
Clean Power Plan.
ere are also other policy and leg-
islative proposals, including clean ener-
gy standards and carbon prices. ese
warrant study for creating ground-up
solutions that can be more ecient
than piecemeal approaches. While pro-
posals dier in design and details, key
to success will be technology-neutral
policies that focus on achieving emis-
sion reduction goals and letting tech-
nology and innovation achieve those
goals, as opposed to prejudging tech-
nologies at the outset of these paths to
deep decarbonization.
Finally, the Biden administration
has been right to elevate the role of en-
vironmental justice, focused on ensur-
ing that disadvantaged and dispropor-
tionately impacted communities avoid
harms and realize benets from clean
energy opportunities. e power sector
should partner with the administration
and local communities to consider EJ
issues in the siting and permitting of
energy facilities and infrastructure, as
well as opportunities to develop jobs
and to ensure aordable and reliable
electricity for all communities.
Roger Martella is vice president, chief sustain-
the author’s and not any employer.
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