The Path to VIOLENCE: "While understanding why mass shootings occur is important identifying how to stop them requires a focus on how individuals escalate from grievance to the attack.".

• Author: Schildkraut, Jaclyn
• Position: LAW & JUSTICE

MASS PUBLIC SHOOTINGS, like the May 14 tragedy in Buffalo, N.Y., and the attack in Uvalde, Texas, just 10 days later, typically are accompanied by a flurry of questions from the public and policymakers. Why did this shooting happen? What drove this person to choose such violence? Why did it occur at this specific location?

Focusing solely on the why, however, often leads to failed attempts at profiling mass shooters or an overprediction of who may commit similar acts. It also fails to take into account that, while motives across these events vary, how individuals move from grievance to violence shares distinct and actionable similarities. Put another way, identifying and examining the typical stages of mass shooting events presents policymakers with a broader array of options for prevention than simply focusing on a shooter's motives.

A guiding framework for understanding these stages is the Path to Intended Violence model, which outlines the progressive phases individuals may pass through ahead of committing acts of violence. The path begins with a grievance harbored by the perpetrator, which either may be real (e.g., loss of a job or relationship) or perceived (e.g., driven by paranoid or delusional thinking). Unable to move past the grievance, the individual becomes fixated on it and engages in ideation wherein the person fantasizes about responding to the grievance through violent means.

At some point, the individual makes the decision to take the idea from fantasy to reality, and the individual begins planning the attack. This often involves researching previous attacks and their perpetrators and deciding on where to carry out the plan and surveilling it (depending on the person's level of familiarity with the location), among other logistical considerations.

Individuals engage in preparation activities, such as acquiring their weapon(s), ammunition, and other elements (e.g., body armor). It is at this point that they also may craft manifestos or other legacy tokens or give away personal belongings. Since these behaviors often are noticeable, which could lead to the plan being thwarted, individuals may become more isolated during this stage of the process.

Once the plan is set and the individual has acquired the means to carry it out, the person may engage in probing behaviors, during which there are tests for security and other potential barriers to carrying out the plan at the intended location or conduct a dry run. At this point...