The “Palin Effect” in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

• DOI: 10.1177/1065912911401415
• Published date: 01 June 2012
• Author: Jonathan Knuckey
• Date: 01 June 2012
• Subject Matter: Articles

401415PRQ65210.1177/106591291140
1415KnuckeyPolitical Research Quarterly
Political Research Quarterly
65(2) 275 –289
The “Palin Effect” in the 2008
© 2012 University of Utah
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U.S. Presidential Election
DOI: 10.1177/1065912911401415
http://prq.sagepub.com
Jonathan Knuckey1
Abstract
Using data from the American National Election Studies, this article addresses whether the Sarah Palin affected vote
choice in 2008. Findings indicate not only that evaluations of Palin were a strong predictor of vote choice—even when
controlling for confounding variables—but also that Palin’s effect on vote choice was the largest of any vice presidential
candidate in elections examined dating back to 1980. Theoretically, the article offers support for the proposition that
a running mate is an important short-term force affecting voting behavior. Substantively, the article suggests that Palin
may have contributed to a loss of support among “swing voters.”
Keywords
elections, voting behavior, running mate
The selection of Sarah Palin as the Republican Party’s vice
candidate for the vice presidency, and—following Geraldine
presidential nominee for the 2008 election was widely
Ferraro in 1984—only the second occasion that a woman
viewed as a stunning surprise in an election year where the
had been placed on a major party ticket. Second, Palin’s
last rites had already long since be given to what passed
selection may have been an attempt to capitalize on any
for “conventional wisdom” in a presidential campaign. Few
lingering resentment that supporters of Hillary Clinton felt
pundits had considered Palin, who had served less than
having seen their candidate lose the Democratic nomina-
two years as governor of Alaska, to be on John McCain’s
tion to Barack Obama. Indeed, Palin alluded to this in her
short list for the vice presidency. Instead, McCain’s rival
first public speech noting, “It turns out the women of
for the Republican presidential nomination, Mitt Romney,
America are not finished yet and we can shatter that glass
as well as Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty and former
ceiling once and for all.” Third, Palin augmented McCain’s
Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge were generally consid-
general election pitch as the “reform” candidate. In intro-
ered to be the most likely choices. If McCain had felt a
ducing Palin, McCain noted that the Alaska governor had
bold move was in order, Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal
“fought oil companies and party bosses and do-nothing
was one option. Alternatively, reaching over the partisan
bureaucrats and anyone who puts their interests before
divide and putting Democrat turned Independent Senator
the interests of the people she swore an oath to serve.”
Joe Lieberman on the ticket was also a possibility. The fact
Again, the theme of two “mavericks” heading the GOP
that few pundits had seriously considered Palin in the
ticket could be viewed as a direct counter to Obama’s mes-
GOP’s vice presidential sweepstakes was evidenced in the
sage of “change” in an election year where represent-
hours after her official announcement on August 29 as
ing the status quo was a liability. Finally, Palin’s selection
McCain’s running mate, as many pundits on the cable news
can be viewed as an attempt by McCain to solidify the
channels compared notes as to the correct pronunciation
Republican base, particularly social conservatives, with
of the Alaska governor’s surname.
whom McCain had often had an uneasy relationship.
In retrospect, the appeal of Palin for the McCain cam-
One story that was featured prominently highlighted
paign made sense in several ways. First, it stole the thun-
Palin’s decision not to have an abortion when she discov-
der from the Democrats just one day after Barack Obama’s
ered her baby had Down’s syndrome. The message was
historic acceptance speech as the first African American
nominated by a major party. The story of the epic Democratic
1University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA
nomination battle had largely been framed as one of his-
Corresponding Author:
toric firsts; the party was going to nominate a candidate
Jonathan Knuckey, University of Central Florida,
who was not a white man. The Republican Party now
Department of Political Science, Orlando, FL 32816
had its historic moment, the selection of its first woman
Email: Jonathan.Knuckey@ucf.edu

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Political Research Quarterly 65(2)
simple: Palin was prolife not just in rhetoric but in her
of vote choice. Such neglect once may have been justified,
actual decision to bring the baby to term. Furthermore,
however, as Pious (2003, 225) notes, vice presidents “have
Palin’s own small-town roots may also have served as a
been transformed from marginal figures with little to do
means to connect the GOP ticket to those voters who
in Washington into important presidential advisers, policy
may have felt slighted by the comments made by Obama
implementers, and party campaigners.” Moreover, the
in the Democratic primaries when he referred to small-
increased importance of the vice presidency in American
town Americans as “bitter” people who cling to their
politics (Cronin 1982; Goldstein 1982; Light 1984;
guns and religion.
Baumgartner 2006), together with the fact that the vice
Despite the positives, Palin may have turned out more
presidency has emerged as a stepping-stone for the presi-
of a liability for the Republican ticket. Indeed, this is
dential nomination, has led to some scholars to examine
the central question addressed by this article. Given
the effect of vice presidential candidates on vote choice.
Palin’s less than stellar—critics may say embarrassing—
Furthermore, while the rising salience of the vice pres-
performances in her only two network TV interviews and
ident in administrations has been evident since the Nixon
the general sense that serving less than two years as Alaska
presidency, the two most recent vice presidents demon-
governor was no qualification to be a “heartbeat away”
strate just how important the office has become, and cer-
from the presidency, to what extent did many voters who
tainly go some way to warrant the further study of the effect
may have been open to the prospect of supporting McCain
that feelings toward the vice presidents have on vote choice.
not do so because of their feelings toward Palin? While
Al Gore exerted enormous influence as vice president in the
the answer to this question will have to remain somewhat
Clinton administration, often being instrumental in shaping
speculative—the election cannot be rerun with a different
administration thinking in both domestic policy, such as
running mate—the article will examine how feeling toward
on the budget deficit and welfare reform (Zelnick 1999;
Palin exerted an independent effect on vote choice.
Maraniss and Nakashima 2000; Turque 2000) and foreign
Utilizing data from the 2008 American National Election
policy such as intervention in Bosnia (Rothkopf 2004).
Study (NES) and the NES Cumulative File, the article
Gore’s influence as vice president was, perhaps, exceeded
proceeds in four stages. First, the potential of a “Palin effect”
only by his successor, Dick Cheney, whose influence with-
is placed in the broader context of the literature on whether
in the Bush administration has been well documented
vice presidential selections do affect vote choice. Second,
(Gellman 2008), especially in the area of foreign policy
a multivariate model is employed to examine whether feel-
and as one of the key architects of the war in Iraq (Woodward
ing toward Palin exerted an independent effect on vote
2002, 2004, 2006; Daalder and Destler 2009).
choice in 2008 above and beyond other control variables.
While there is now a consensus that the vice presi-
Third, any “Palin effect” in 2008 is contrasted with the
dency is a more salient and consequential base of
effect of vice presidential candidates in prior elections.
political power, there remain conflicting findings on the
Fourth, a fully specified model of vote choice is examined
effect of vice presidential nominees as short-term forces
for 2008 to determine whether the “Palin Effect” simply
that influences vote choice. Employing an aggregate state-
served as a surrogate for the “values divide” in American
by-state analysis, several studies suggest either no role or
politics and whether issues associated with social and
a very limited one in the ability of vice presidential nomi-
cultural issues mediated the effect of feeling toward Palin
nees to carry their home state (Tubbesing 1973; Adkinson
on vote choice.
1982; Dudley and Rapoport 1989). Holbrook (1991) also
confirmed this finding, even when extending the influence
Vice Presidential
of the vice presidential nominee from home state to region.
On the other hand, using individual-level data Wattenberg
Candidates and Vote Choice
(1995) found that vice presidential candidates are a sig-
A large literature has developed that suggests that presi-
nificant factor in explicating individual level vote choice
dential candidate image, whether it be evaluations of a
above and beyond control variables such as party iden-
candidate’s competence or cognitive and affective feeling
tification, ideology, and presidential candidate image.
toward the candidate, plays a large role in the calculus
However,...