THE OUTER-SPACE DIMENSION OF THE UKRAINE CONFLICT: TOWARD A NEW PARADIGM FOR ORBITS AS A WAR DOMAIN?

• Author: Chabert, Valentina

Alongside military operations on the battlefield, since the first hours of the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, both actors have employed space orbits as a complementary domain in which to conduct deterrence actions, in order to obtain a strategic advantage over the enemy. In this regard, despite outer space already having played a major role in previous conflicts, the Russian-Ukrainian war presents relevant elements of novelty in the use of space orbits as a realm of confrontation. Markedly, the involvement of private space corporations in war marks a significant watershed, opening new scenarios for governments, space agencies, and armies that traditionally own the monopoly of satellites either for civilian or military purposes. By adopting a descriptive methodology, this article investigates the outer space dimension of the conflict in Ukraine and the role of U.S.-based space private entities in support of Kyiv's government, to evaluate whether a tangible possibility for outer space as a prospective military battlefield exists. This article further intends to review the eventuality of a nuclear device deployment in outer space and to depict the possible outcomes of military operations on Earth. For this purpose, an evaluation of the space weaponization trend and the consequent geopolitical competition among major space powers is conducted.

Keywords: Ukraine conflict, war, outer space, Low Earth Orbit, private corporations

INTRODUCTION

Since the beginning of the Russian "Special Military Operation" on Ukrainian soil early on February 24, 2022, outer space was promptly characterized as a rather innovative and invisible domain through which the two opposing military deployments would conduct hostile operations on terrestrial battlefields. Outer space has already played a major role in previous conflicts, both for the retrieval of satellite images (essential to identify the movements of enemy armies on the ground) and for the correct functioning of intelligence services. (1) Yet the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine presents novel elements in the use of space orbits as a realm of war in which the respective armies confront each other and from which specific destabilization operations are launched. In this regard, former NATO Secretary General and member of the European Space Agency Advisory Group on Human and Robotic Space Exploration, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, recently declared that the war in Ukraine amounts to the first major conflict in which both sides have relied on spatial capabilities, though it will not be the last. (2) What is more, the involvement in the war of private corporations, specifically space capitalists who have entered the promising new space economy, opens new scenarios for national governments and space agencies that traditionally own the monopoly of satellites, either for civilian or military purposes. (3)

Against this background, this paper intends to investigate the outer space dimension of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, in order to assess whether space orbits can be considered an additional domain where military operations are being conducted. This article evaluates whether there is a tangible possibility for outer space to be utilized as a prospective military battlefield, considering the political and strategic implications of such an employment of orbits in future conflicts. First, an extensive analysis of the space operations performed by both armies in the first year of conflict is conducted. More precisely, the support of U.S. private corporations to Ukraine is examined, as well as relevant deterrent actions carried out by the Russian Federation before the war. Then, the practical implications of the eventual utilization of space orbits as a war domain will be investigated in an attempt to review scholars' suppositions of a nuclear device deployment in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and to consequently depict the possible outcomes of such eventuality on military operations on earth. Finally, through the analysis of previous cases of space operations as part of military conflicts, the paper explores the possibility of future wars with more consistent involvement in the space domain. To this end, the current trend toward the weaponization of space and the geopolitical competition among major space powers will be evaluated.

PRIVATE CORPORATIONS IN THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR: AN OUTER-SPACE PERSPECTIVE

The war between Russia and Ukraine marks a watershed moment for the complete entrance of outer space and space capabilities into military confrontations. Even before the conflict, space technologies became an essential component for the execution of military operations, both at communication and intelligence levels. (4) In the months before the Russian invasion, satellite spy systems and global positioning systems (GPS) images collected by U.S.based private companies were able to detect suspicious buildups of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, signaling an imminent invasion of the country which materialized on February 24th, 2022. A convoy of Russian military vehicles traveling from Belgorod to Ukraine at that exact time, at around 3:15 am, was captured on camera and published on Google Maps. This convoy was being watched in near real-time by Western intelligence services, as well as by the Kyiv government itself, using surveillance and reconnaissance tools that were easily accessible from U.S. and European commercial suppliers. (5) Despite the huge financial and military aid promptly granted by the governments of NATO countries, it is in the field of satellite communication and space services provided by private companies that the greatest successes have been recorded in the concrete support of Ukraine. These services proved to be fundamental to ensure Kyiv's survival both on the battlefield and in the information war with public opinion.

The satellite communication system of Starlink, operated by the company SpaceX and owned by the billionaire space capitalist...