The next Pope.

• Author: Siemon-Netto, Uwe

THE END IS near. Before long, the College of Cardinals will have to elect a successor to Pope John Paul II. His will be a tough act to follow. To begin with, the new man on Saint Peter's throne must be able to preach the Christian social ethic without succumbing to the lure of radical liberation theology. In other words, he will be expected to do what is theologically imperative yet stay clear of left-wing clericalism. This quality is all the more essential if one considers these demographic projections: By 2025, some 2.6 billion people in the world will be Christians of all stripes. Of these, 67 percent (and about 75 percent of Roman Catholics) will live in Africa, Latin America and Asia, according to Philip Jenkins, author of The Next Christendom. (1) These are precisely the continents where Christianity has been experiencing a relentless growth--and where poverty still abounds.

Should the next pope be any less sensitive to global social concerns than John Paul II--or should he, conversely, proclaim a social Gospel rather than preaching social responsibility from the Gospel--the consequences might be catastrophic. The shepherd of a billion people could easily divide his own flock by siding with one half against the other. This could perhaps cause huge numbers in the global North to turn away from the Church of Rome altogether in favor of secularism or, conversely, drive the disappointed "have-nots" into the arms of a competing belief system, such as Islam.

Thus, the College of Cardinals will undoubtedly look for a candidate who understands these issues and knows how to tackle them with diplomatic finesse and theological clarity. Three of the most urgent concerns arise from the current situation: the challenge from Islam, the re-evangelization of the global North (especially Europe) and the need to overcome postmodern chaos--in particular by continuing to reach out to the young, an endeavor in which John Paul II particularly excelled.

Dealing with Islam

ARGUABLY, John Paul II has so far played a pivotal role in preventing the current conflict between radical Islamists and the West from degenerating into a global fracas between Islam and Christianity more generally. One of his pontificate's accomplishments has been the maintenance of relatively harmonious relations with most Muslim nations and moderate Islamic thinkers without jeopardizing Israel's existence. This topic merits a separate study; suffice it for now to point to a few remarkable events.

There was, for example, the alliance between the Vatican and Muslim nations against the Clinton Administration's attempt to establish a right to abortion as a global human entitlement at the Cairo World Population Conference in 1994. In a sense, this alliance lives on in a remarkable way. Muslim organizations have joined the efforts of evangelical Protestants and Mormons to defend the Holy See's permanent observer status at the United Nations. This status, which is accorded to states without full UN membership, is under attack from feminist and pro-abortion groups advocating the Vatican's demotion at the UN to the level of an NGO. The issue here is really whether the world body should or should not continue to recognize the Vatican's statehood. This problem will doubtlessly endure well into the next pontificate.

There was also evidence of the Vatican's diplomatic skills when it played a key role in resolving the standoff between Israeli forces and armed Palestinian activists holed up in Bethlehem's Church of the Nativity in 2002. And there was the display of mutual respect between the pope and Muslim--as well as other--religious leaders during the Assisi prayers for peace.

In Assisi, the pope adroitly avoided the charge of religious relativism by eschewing interfaith prayers, which are anathema to orthodox Christians and Muslims alike. Each faith group worshipped at a different location--Christians with Christians (Catholic or otherwise), Muslims with Muslims, Buddhists with Buddhists, Hindus with Hindus. These encounters may not have sat well with some unyielding evangelical and Catholic traditionalists, but they were exemplary in that they explored the extent to which different religions can seek common ground on...