The new great game.

• Author: Atal, Subodh
• Position: China, Central Asia

OF ALL the regional powers vying for influence in Central Asia, China is likely to have the most lasting and broad impact. Geographical proximity and security and economic interests all play a factor in the region becoming a top strategic priority for China.

A major factor in China's outreach across its western border has been its exploding energy demand. Its economy, growing at the torrid pace of 9.5 percent per year, has made the nation the world's second-largest oil importer and will likely account for one-fifth of the world's growth in global energy demand in the next quarter-century. With much of China's current energy imports arriving via the insecure Malacca Strait, its energy strategy emphasizes diversification of energy routes, including pipelines from Iran and Kazakhstan.

Moreover, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan all share borders with China's Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region (XUAR). The Uighur population of Xinjiang shares religious and cultural links with the Muslim Turkic population of Central Asia. The Islamic unrest in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan has spilled over into XUAR in the form of Uighur separatism, with periodic bombings, uprisings and other violence. Links between Uighur separatists and terrorist groups in Central Asian nations, particularly Kyrgyzstan, have been uncovered in recent years, raising fears of Central Asian Islamic extremists joining forces with Uighur separatists to form a united front. Such a possibility has prompted authorities in Central Asian nations such as Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to collaborate with China in sharing intelligence on Islamic extremist activities. Oil and gas pipelines traversing Central Asia and XUAR territory would be particularly susceptible to sabotage by extremists. Thus, stability on its western border is critical to China in ensuring a suitable environment for its continued economic growth. Furthermore, China wants to avoid drawing the United States into broader involvement in the region in response to terrorism and instability.

With much at stake, China has patiently and skillfully built strong ties to its western neighbors. Initial distrust of the nation by its smaller neighbors such as Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan has given way to close economic links as China has moved to resolve border disputes, invest in infrastructure projects and provide assistance to the Central Asian nations. China has set up trade missions in every Central Asian country, is paying for a highway to be constructed from Kyrgyzstan to China and has offered to help Uzbekistan develop several small oil fields. China has even promoted the revival of the ancient Silk Road era through economic integration between Xinjiang and the eight Central and South Asian nations of India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.

Chinese strategy in Central Asia draws upon its "New Security Concept", wherein the "use of force and the threat of use of force" are replaced with multilateral "mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality and coordination." (1) This flame-work evolved during the late 1990s and was enunciated in official white papers published in 1998 and 2000 on China's defense policy. The New Security Concept aims at achieving China's geopolitical goals through multilateral dialogue and cooperation and thus at challenging the emerging American unipolarity after the Soviet disintegration. The abrupt entry of the U.S. military after 9/11 into bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, the latter one near Bishkek and thus rather close to China's border, has strengthened Chinese suspicions of an American attempt at...