The morphing of Montana.

• Author: Polzin, Paul E.
• Position: Economic forecasting until 2010 - Cover Story

Montana's Communities in 2010: How Will They Change?

This year's economic projections focus primarily on Montana's urban areas, and draw from long-term forecasts recently released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. We don't necessarily agree with every decimal point of BEA projections, but they do suggest likely trends for the next decade and a half. We also add to these data our own projections and analysis. But first, a quick look at statewide and regional forecasts.

Overview

Population

Montana's population is projected to exceed 1 million in 2010. The West and the East regions are expected to grow faster than the North Central region (see map).

Yellowstone County is projected to have 155,000 residents in 2010, with Missoula County in second place with 107,000. Flathead, Cascade, and Gallatin counties will each include roughly 80,000 residents. Lewis and Clark County's population is projected to be about 63,000, and the Butte-Anaconda area will have about 53,000 residents.

County population will grow due to newcomers, as well as births exceeding deaths (referred to as the natural increase). Table 2 shows estimates for net migration into Montana's most populous counties. Keep in mind that these are annual averages and that net migration is the portion of population change not accounted for by the combined effect of births and deaths. The statewide figure for net migration includes only those from a different state; the county level figures include those migrating from other counties within Montana as well as those from another state.

Table 2 Projected Net Migration per Year 1990- 1996- 2000- 1996 2000 2010 Yellowstone County 1,300 1,500 2,000 Gallatin County 1,200 1,000 1,000 Butte-Anconda Area 100 500 500 Cascade County 0 0 0 Lewis & Clark County 600 600 600 Flathead County 1,700 1,000 1,000 Missoula County 1,100 1,000 1,100 Montana 8,000 4,100 7,000 Source: The University of Montana-Missoula, Bureau of Business and Economic Research. Economic Activity

Gross State Product, the best overall measure of economic activity, is not available for communities. Nonfarm labor income is used instead, and shows the same trend as Gross State Product.

Montana's economy grew rapidly in the early 1990s. This growth will continue during the next decade and a half but will average about 2 percent, rather than the 4 to 5 percent increases of the last few years. While Montana's growth is projected to exceed the national average, it will be among the slowest in the Rocky...