The Moderating Effect of Democracy on Climate-Induced Social Conflict: Evidence from Indian Districts

• Author: Anoop Sarbahi,Ore Koren
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/10659129211034572
• Published date: 01 September 2022
• Date: 01 September 2022
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/10659129211034572

Political Research Quarterly

© 2021 University of Utah

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/10659129211034572

journals.sagepub.com/home/prq

The last decade has witnessed a rapid expansion of

research on the relationship between environmental stress

and violent conflict (e.g., Bretthauer 2015; Gleditsch

2012; Gleick 2014; Koubi et al. 2012; O’Loughlin et al.

2012; Theisen 2008). The insights provided by this strain

of research notwithstanding, there are two important lim-

itations that still persist and limit our ability to understand

how climate impacts local conflict. In this study, we

address both limitations, discussed below, by focusing on

how the intersection of environmental stress and local

institutional arrangements affect social conflict.

First, limited attention was given to localized societal

conflicts, which lack the militarization associated with

organized armed wars and are often rooted in socioeco-

nomic divisions that can be affected by environmental

stress and then potentially feed into existing armed con-

flicts or escalate into new ones.

Indeed, several studies find the effect of environmen-

tal stress is more likely to manifest as low-level inter-

group conflicts rather than large-scale civil wars, at least

in Africa (Benjaminsen et al. 2012; Meier, Bond, and

Bond 2007).1 Second, until recently, climate–conflict

nexus research paid relatively little attention to the polit-

ical context where violence takes place, even though

contextual social structures and political institutions

likely play a significant role in moderating the effects of

environmental shocks (Buhaug 2010; Salehyan 2008).2

Indeed, political science research has long recognized

the centrality of institutions in shaping a host of political

phenomena, including conflict (e.g., Coleman and

Mwangi 2015; Przeworski 2010). Hence, there is a need

for geographically restricted analysis of the contextual-

ized effects of environmental stressors on social conflict

(Bernauer, Bohmelt, and Koubi 2012), especially outside

of Africa (Adams et al. 2018).

Building on recent literature on localized social con-

flict (e.g., Detges 2016; Mustasilta 2019), we bring evi-

dence from South Asia, a highly vulnerable region in terms

of food and water security yet largely understudied, to shed

light on the impact of environmental stress on social con-

flict. We examine the effect of droughts on violence against

underprivileged social communities in India—lower castes

or untouchables (dalits) and Indigenous ethnic groups (adi-

vasis), officially designated by the Indian government as

0

34572PRQXXX10.1177/10659129211034572Political Research QuarterlySarbahi and Koren

2

021

1University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, Minneapolis, USA

2Indiana University, Bloomington, USA

Corresponding Author:

Anoop Sarbahi, Department of Political Science, University of

Minnesota, Twin Cities, 267 19th Avenue S #1414, Minneapolis,

MN 55455, USA.

Email: sarbahi@umn.edu

The Moderating Effect of Democracy

on Climate-Induced Social Conflict:

Evidence from Indian Districts

Anoop Sarbahi1 and Ore Koren2

Abstract

Do political institutions moderate the effect of environmental stress on social conflict? We posit that while the

frequency of social conflict in developing agrarian states can increase during drought, democratic competition

reduces conflict and can facilitate cooperation, reversing this effect. This hypothesis is tested on a sample of all

districts in India over a period from 2001 to 2014. The dependent variable captures the number of crimes perpetrated

against scheduled castes—so-called “untouchables”—and scheduled tribes—India’s Indigenous groups—during a

given district-year. When the effect of drought is moderated using a local electoral competition index, findings

show that although droughts increase the frequency of social conflicts where political institutions are weak, they

reduce it where political institutions are strong. The results are robust to alternative operationalization choices.

Our findings, thus, have relevance both to scholars of the climate–conflict nexus and to policymakers working to

address climate change’s effects.

Keywords

electoral competition, environmental conflict, caste violence, democracy, droughts, India

2022, Vol. 75(3) 892–905

Article