The Missing Link? Modernization, Tolerance, and Legislation on Homosexuality
| Author | Eva-Maria Trüdinger,Achim Hildebrandt,Dominik Wyss |
| Published date | 01 September 2019 |
| DOI | 10.1177/1065912918797464 |
| Date | 01 September 2019 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
research-article2018
Article
Political Research Quarterly
2019, Vol. 72(3) 539 –553
The Missing Link? Modernization,
© 2018 University of Utah
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Tolerance, and Legislation on
https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912918797464
DOI: 10.1177/1065912918797464
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Homosexuality
Achim Hildebrandt1, Eva-Maria Trüdinger1, and Dominik Wyss1
Abstract
Research suggests that modernization is an important driver of liberalization in the field of gay and lesbian rights.
Surprisingly, it has often been assumed—but not empirically examined—that a culture of tolerance mediates the
relationship between socioeconomic modernization and liberal legislation. This article closes this gap by analyzing
the seventy-three countries that took part in the fifth and sixth waves of the World Values Survey. As government
responsiveness to public attitudes is structurally enforced by means of electoral accountability in democracies, but
not in autocracies, we, in addition, distinguish between these regime types in an analysis of moderated mediation.
We show that tolerant attitudes toward homosexuals do, indeed, mediate the influence of modernization on gay and
lesbian rights policies in democracies, but not in autocracies. The result is confirmed by extensive robustness checks,
including an instrumental variables approach to account for a potential reverse causality between tolerance and rights.
The study does not only underline the relevance of cultural aspects of modernization, but also points to the crucial
importance of regime type for a translation of public opinion into policy.
Keywords
modernization, democracy, public opinion-policy nexus, tolerance, LGBT rights
Introduction
direct line from wealth, social development, and so forth
to public policy might miss out a significant step.
Gays and lesbians enjoy more rights in countries with a
We also test whether the effect of those attitudes on
higher degree of modernization, as several large-N anal-
legislation is limited to democracies (moderated media-
yses have shown (Asal and Sommer 2016; Asal,
tion), as only democratic elections enforce government
Sommer, and Harwood 2013; Frank, Camp, and responsiveness to public preferences. With regard to the
Boutcher 2010; Frank and Moss 2017; Hildebrandt
legislation on homosexuality, we can draw on empirical
2015). Why is that the case? The authors usually con-
findings to answer the crucial question of how important
tend that as modernization progresses, a change of val-
the regime type is for policy responsiveness. Moderated
ues can be observed that includes growing tolerance for
mediation allows us to test whether democracies—in
alternative lifestyles. However, they do not provide
contrast to autocracies—are truly open to people’s prefer-
empirical evidence of this assumed mechanism linking
ences, that is, whether they translate public opinion in
modernization with tolerance toward gays and lesbians,
public policy. Results confirming this translation process
and tolerance with the rights of this minority. The pres-
can serve as evidence for theoretically postulated effects
ent article closes this gap. We test whether the effect
of modernization on the stability and effectiveness of
socioeconomic modernization has on gay and lesbian
democracies (e.g., Welzel and Inglehart 2008).
rights is mediated by tolerance toward this group (medi-
With our analysis, we help unpack a black box (Imai
ation).1 We show that it is important to regard modern-
et al. 2011) in macro-quantitative research, which often
ization processes not only as socioeconomic background
variables, but to uncover specific paths by which they
may influence binding decisions—in our case, a liberal-
1University of Stuttgart, Germany
ization of policies. The study also underlines the rele-
vance of cultural aspects of modernization, as the
Corresponding Author:
Achim Hildebrandt, Institute for Social Sciences, University of
described mechanism brings about political changes via
Stuttgart, Breitscheidstrasse 2, Stuttgart 70174, Germany.
attitudes. The findings indicate that studies drawing a
Email: achim.hildebrandt@sowi.uni-stuttgart.de
540
Political Research Quarterly 72(3)
statistically interrelates highly aggregated phenomena
available, Hildebrandt shows a strong correlation of the
without answering the question of how one phenomenon
Human Development Index with attitudes toward homo-
influences the other. With the help of mediation analysis,
sexuality (Hildebrandt 2015, 866). The author does not
we are able to identify a potential causal mechanism
provide a detailed path analysis of the mechanism he
(Tingley et al. 2014). Nevertheless, it is only a potential
believes to be at work, however.
causal mechanism, because mediation analysis always
These previous studies have identified modernization
has the character of an observational study (Keele 2015).
as an important factor in the legal emancipation of gays
Due to the limited availability of data, the analysis is
and lesbians, among others. At the same time, they repre-
based on a relatively small number of cases: while previ-
sent a large number of empirical studies that “focus on
ous macro-quantitative studies on the rights of gays and
merely establishing whether one variable affects another
lesbians examine between 150 and 170 countries, this
and fail to explain how such a causal relationship arises”
article relies on data for the seventy-three countries that
(Imai et al. 2011, 765). This applies particularly to macro-
were part of the fifth and sixth waves of the World Values
quantitative studies interrelating highly aggregated phe-
Survey. This difference shows why it may seem an attrac-
nomena, such as the fundamental social changes described
tive choice to circumvent the problem of measuring cul-
by the term modernization and the outcomes of the legis-
ture directly on the basis of survey data by using
lative process, as in our case. The authors rely exclusively
modernization as a proxy. The findings of this article,
on narrative accounts to establish a link between the phe-
which apart from detailed analyses of moderated media-
nomena, which is particularly problematic when there are
tion also presents a test of alternative hypotheses and
contradictory arguments referring to completely different
additional robustness checks, indicate the extent to which
mechanisms behind this link (e.g., Kittel 2006, 653).
this practice may be acceptable.
For our case, Frank and McEneaney (1999) discuss an
alternative way of how modernization might influence
The Effect of Modernization on Gay
gay and lesbian rights. They consider modernization to be
and Lesbian Rights
part of the opportunity structure that determines the suc-
cess or failure of social movements. Economic develop-
Asal, Sommer, and Harwood (2013) and Hildebrandt
ment, educational expansion, and urbanization have led
(2015) explicitly test hypotheses about the influence of
to the development of predominantly urban, middle-class,
modernization on the repeal of prohibitions of homosexu-
social movements advocating the emancipation of dis-
ality. They explain this approach by taking recourse to
criminated groups. We examine this alternative proposi-
cultural changes associated with the progress of modern-
tion in section “Testing Alternative Hypotheses.”
ization, such as increasing tolerance toward alternative
lifestyles, a growing willingness to perceive others as
How Modernization Matters
people with equal rights, and a greater openness of the
population to abandoning discriminating laws. They
In the following, we present our arguments in two steps
show empirically that progressing modernization is asso-
(see Figure 1). First, we explain the effect of moderniza-
ciated with a significantly lesser likelihood of criminal-
tion on tolerance toward gays and lesbians by taking
ization of homosexuality, with modernization being
recourse to Inglehart and Welzel’s revised theory of mod-
measured by the Human Development Index (Hildebrandt
ernization (Inglehart and Welzel 2005). For our subse-
2015) or GDP per capita (Asal, Sommer, and Harwood
quent elucidation of the effect such tolerance has on
2013). Asal and Sommer (2016); Frank, Camp, and
legislation, we rely on works on the public opinion-policy
Boutcher (2010); and Frank and Moss (2017) confirm
nexus (e.g., Burstein 2003).
this result in their analyses, which do focus on different
According to Inglehart and Welzel (2005), socioeco-
hypotheses, but use GDP per capita as a control variable.
nomic development has a threefold effect on human liv-
Asal and Sommer (2016) demonstrate that high GDP per
ing conditions. Economic growth and—at a later
capita raises the likelihood that a prohibition of discrimi-
stage—the development of the welfare state reduce exis-
nation based on sexual orientation in the workplace
tential uncertainty. The expansion of the education sector
exists. In addition, they report a positive association
offers people greater access to information and promotes
between GDP per capita and a composite measure of gay
the development of their cognitive skills. Increasing
rights comprising legalization of homosexuality and pro-
social complexity paves the way for new and different ...
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