The Intersectional Effects of Diverse Elections on Validated Turnout in the 2018 Midterm Elections
| Published date | 01 December 2020 |
| Date | 01 December 2020 |
| DOI | 10.1177/1065912920945781 |
| Subject Matter | Mini-Symposium: The Role of Gender in the 2018 Midterm Elections |
research-article2020
Mini-Symposium: The Role of Gender in the 2018 Midterm Elections
Political Research Quarterly
2020, Vol. 73(4) 988 –1003
The Intersectional Effects of Diverse
© 2020 University of Utah
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Elections on Validated Turnout in the
https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912920945781
DOI: 10.1177/1065912920945781
journals.sagepub.com/home/prq
2018 Midterm Elections
Vladimir E. Medenica1 and Matthew Fowler2
Abstract
The 2018 midterm elections in the United States were unprecedented in their gender and racial diversity. Voters
across the country, especially younger voters, elected the most diverse U.S. Congress in history. Despite increased
electoral diversity along lines of gender, race, and the intersections of both, extant literature has remained siloed,
focusing on the effect of either gender or race on turnout but rarely examining both in relation to one another. Using
a novel data set of racially diverse young adults that includes demographic information for congressional candidates
and vote-validated data, this study investigates how the intersection of race and gender influence voter turnout across
diverse electoral contexts. Our study provides important insights for both unpacking the 2018 elections and more
generally understanding how race and gender interact to influence youth voter turnout as candidate profiles and
electoral contexts continue to diversify.
Keywords
voter turnout, political behavior, race, ethnicity, young voters
Introduction
women are underrepresented in Congress, making up 51
percent of the population but only 23 percent of the House
The 2018 midterm elections in the United States were
of Representativeness. People of color are similarly
unprecedented in their gender and racial diversity. Voters
underrepresented. African Americans, for example, con-
across the country—particularly young voters—elected
stitute 13 percent of the population and only 9 percent of
record numbers of women and people of color to office,
Congress. Lack of adequate representation is even more
resulting in the most diverse U.S. Congress in history. For
exaggerated for Latinxs, who make up roughly 18 percent
the first time, about a quarter of the members of the House
of the population but only 6 percent of Congress.
of Representatives were people of color, and approxi-
Nevertheless, the growing number of women and people
mately 23 percent were women (DeSilver 2018; Geiger,
of color running for office coupled with higher rates of
Bialik, and Gramlich 2019). Furthermore, the demo-
youth turnout raise the salience of important questions
graphic diversity of Congress reached across boundary
regarding voter behavior, particularly at a time when the
lines of race or gender. Of the twenty-four people of color
demographics of the country are also changing substan-
in the 2018 freshman class of representatives over half
tially. How is one’s race and/or gender related to voter
were women, increasing the total number of women of
turnout? Do the presence of women and/or minority can-
color in the House to a record high of forty-three (Center
didates influence voter turnout? And, if so, is there varia-
for American Women and Politics [CAWP] 2018). These
tion across individual race, gender, and/or region?
gains were in no small part due to increased turnout of
Although these questions are not new to political sci-
younger voters. Voter turnout among young voters
ence research, they warrant revisiting. Existing literature
jumped from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018,
the largest increase for any group (Misra 2019).
1
Despite a marked improvement in the racial and gen-
University of Delaware, Newark, USA
2University of Chicago, IL, USA
der composition of its members, however, the demo-
graphics of Congress are still below parity compared with
Corresponding Author:
the country overall, which is growing increasingly diverse
Vladimir E. Medenica, Department of Political Science & International
Relations, University of Delaware, 459 Smith Hall, Newark, DE
with every generation (Frey 2018; Medenica 2018; Rouse
19716, USA.
and Ross 2018). Even with their record gains in 2018,
Email: medenica@udel.edu
Medenica and Fowler
989
on the effects of race and gender on voter turnout has
effects of gender-diverse elections among any race, gen-
remained relatively siloed, focusing on the effect of either
der, or race–gender group. These findings provide impor-
gender or race on political behavior but rarely examining
tant insights for unpacking the 2018 elections and
both gender and race in relation to one another (Brown
contribute to the rich literature on the effects of descrip-
2014; Junn and Brown 2008; Smooth 2006). What’s
tive representation by examining how race and gender
more, studies that have focused on the effects of candi-
interact to influence youth voter turnout, a topic that will
date characteristics like gender and race on turnout often
only continue to increase in importance as candidate pro-
focus on one racial or gender group in the electorate and
files and electoral contexts continue to diversify along-
rarely examine effects across groups (Barreto 2007, 2010;
side the population in the United States.
Dolan 2006; McElroy and Marsh 2009). This categorical
rather than comparative approach to studying the effects
Gender, Race, and Voter Turnout:
of candidate characteristics on individuals often misses
important and electorally consequential reactions of vot-
What We Know and Should Expect
ers who belong to the nontarget group of study Gender
(McConnaughy et al. 2010; Sapiro and Conover 1997;
Tesler 2016). In this study, we bridge related yet parallel
Much of the existing scholarship on the politics of gender
work on the effects of race and ethnicity and gender on
has focused largely on comparisons between men and
voter turnout by outlining how and under what electoral
women, highlighting several important gaps in political
conditions race, gender, and the intersections of race and
attitudes and behavior (Burns, Jardina, and Yadon 2017;
gender affected voter turnout among young adults in the
Huddy and Cassese 2011). While a substantial amount of
2018 congressional elections.1 In doing so, this article
this work has focused on differences in policy preferences
contributes to the literatures on the effects of race, gender,
(Baxter and Lansing 1983; Shapiro and Mahajan 1986)
and candidate identities on political participation and to
and subsequent partisan identification and vote choice
the small but growing and critically important body of
(Box-Steffensmeier, De Boef, and Lin 2004), there has
work on how intersectional race–gender identities shape
also been a noticeable and growing gap in voter turnout
political behavior.
between men and women since 1980 (Carroll 2006; CAWP
We address the limitations of previous work by using
2017). For the past several decades, women have shown up
a novel data set of racially diverse young adults, the
to the ballot box, consistently turning out for presidential
demographic future of the U.S. electorate, that includes
and midterm elections, including the 2018 midterms, at
individual-level vote-validated data for 2018 as well as
higher rates than men (Hartig 2019). Puzzlingly, however,
demographic information for 2018 congressional candi-
scholars have struggled to explain the drivers behind the
dates across congressional districts in the United States.
higher turnout rates exhibited by women, especially as
Moreover, instead of “controlling” for race and/or gender
women tend to participate in other forms at rates lower
as analyses often do, we acknowledge that women and
than men (Burns, Scholzman, and Verba 2002; Lizotte and
people of color occupy structurally distinct social loca-
Sidman 2009; Mondak and Anderson 2004).
tions in society and thus take care to disaggregate our
Nevertheless, as the numbers of women running for
analyses by race, gender, and race–gender (Chow, elected office have increased in recent years, scholars
Wilkinson, and Zinn 1996; Dawson and Cohen 2002;
have investigated the effects of female candidates on vot-
Junn 2017; Masuoka and Junn 2013).
ing. Research on whether the presence of a woman candi-
When applying this analytical strategy of racial and
date on the ballot impacts turnout has been decidedly
gender disaggregation, we find that the drivers of youth
mixed and conditional on a number of factors. For exam-
voter turnout in 2018 differed significantly between
ple, some work has found that women candidates are
whites and people of color, between men and women, and
more likely to campaign on issues of interest to women,
between communities of color. We also find evidence that
which may disproportionately appeal to women voters
elections in districts with more candidates of color, par-
and impact turnout, particularly in elections where those
ticularly women candidates of color, led to increased
issues are salient (Dabelko and Herrnson 1997; Dolan
turnout among people of color, driven primarily by black
2008; Herrnson, Lay, and Stokes 2003). Support for
women. Interestingly, we also found increased turnout
female candidates is also strongly tied to women’s stron-
among white men in Southern districts featuring candi-...
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