Author:Tamer, Olga


The financial stability of enterprises directly influences the economic and social stability of the society. Due to this fact, various theories of evaluation of business efficiency and financial stability of enterprise are widely applied in the economic analysis of enterprises' business activity. The basis of these theories is represented by foreign and domestic evaluation methods of business failure probability (Dolganov et al., 2015; Kondratieva, 2016; Lagkueva & Gurieva, 2015). Business failure associated with the enterprise's crisis condition is a complex process that is characterized in legal, managerial, organizational, financial and accounting-analytical terms. The occurrence of business failure is viewed as occurrence of an enterprise's crisis condition when it is unable to fully ensure the financial security in its production activities. On the initial stage, the diagnostics of business failure probability is aimed at exploring the causes of bankruptcy indicators occurrence (Mitrofanova & Esaulova, 2017; Rudakova, 2015; Sinichenko, 2013). Early diagnostics allows to timely detecting the problem, to immediately engage in its resolution, to apply the defense mechanism and to choose the sequence of procedures that are aimed at decreasing of the business failure risk. There are various techniques and methods that serve as a basis for the prediction of financial indicators of the enterprise's performance. The majority of the methods allow evaluating the failure risks under the conditions of uncertainty (Frost et al., 2016; Jackson, 2015; Jarnyh, 2017; Nosov et al., 2015).

The preliminary analysis of the situation with regard to the improvement of the educational activity of bachelors in "Economics'" ("Economics and production management" profile) allowed to detect the following deficiencies: the students demonstrate an inadequate formation level of competencies in anti-crisis management field that represent a system of diagnostic methods of business failure and its prevention; they do not fully apply various techniques and methods in innovative and predictive mode that serve as a basis for prediction of the financial indicators of the enterprise's business activity, for the evaluation of business failure risk under the conditions of uncertainty.

The relevance of our research topic is determined by the problems that are associated both with theoretical nature of the failure indicators identification and with practical nature that depends on a constantly changing legislation. It is also determined by the absence of statistical data on the failure and risk levels; by the gaps in the knowledge in the issue that is associated with the probability of fraudulent failure. The identification of the business failure probability under the risk conditions is necessary for the evaluation of the enterprise's state in modern market conditions. This will allow to timely fix economic situation, to immediately apply a set of measures that are aimed at the recovery of the enterprise's solvency. When choosing among different contractors, the identification of the business failure probability under the risk condition will allow estimating the contractor's solvency and reliability.

The choice and relevance of our research topic "The improvement of bachelors training in the field of anti-crisis management of enterprises'" was determined by the objective requirements to the improvement of the students' educational activity on the one hand, and, on the other hand, by the lack of sophistication in the theoretical-methodological, organizational-methodical bases of its development. The main contribution of our research into the world pedagogical scientific field "Theory and methods of professional education" is represented by the innovative didactic system of the improvement of bachelors professional economic training. Elaborated in target and content-related, procedural and organizational aspects, it allows to transform the scientific knowledge into educational and to adapt the bachelors professional training to the modern requirements in the field of anti-crisis management of enterprises under uncertain and risk conditions.


Various evaluation theories of business efficiency and financial stability of enterprise are widely applied in the economic analysis of the enterprises' business activity (Wang et al., 2009; Weedon & Riddell, 2015). The basis of these theories is represented by foreign and domestic evaluation methods of business failure probability.

We should note the value of the following researches that were conducted in the field of anti-crisis management: the diagnostics of business failure risk on the basis of multivariate analysis with the use of multi-factor model (Kozlov et al., 2016); the research of the specificity of managerial crises that accounts for economic and social causes of business failure (Argenti); the research of domestic enterprises on the basis of discriminant multivariate diagnostic models of industrial enterprises failure risk (Savitskaya; Davydov, Belikov; Saifullin, Kadykov; Zaitseva; Fedotova). Nevertheless, we should acknowledge that modern stage of the professional education development requires a deep analysis of the existing experience and theoretical approaches in order to find the ways of improvement of the bachelor's professional training in the field of anti-crisis management (Lapteva & Vorobyova, 2018).

It is important to note that the diagnostics of business failure risk level under uncertain conditions is widely used in economic analysis. The method of multivariate analysis is widely used for this purpose. In his works, Beaver made the first attempt to apply analytical coefficients to predict business failures. In his analysis, the greatest weight was attributed to the indicator that represented the ratio between the cash flow and borrowed capital. The economic analysis of the business failure level under uncertain conditions often draws upon multivariate models that were developed by Altman, Lecce, Toffler, and Tishaw. They form the basis of the multivariate discriminant analysis method (Kozlov et al., 2016). E. Altman's researches provide the instruments of multivariate multiplicative discriminant analysis and the method that allows calculating Altman Z-score. Altman distinguished five indicators that are the most significant for the predictive model of evaluation of the business failure risk. He composed a multi-factor regression equation. It is the function of the indicators that characterize the enterprise's economic potential, the results of its productive-economic activity during the past period. We should acknowledge the degree of elaboration of the issue of modelling in the research of business failure risk probability and special contribution made by the British researchers Toffler and Teashow (1977). In their work, they tested Altman's approach on the basis of the statistical information of the commercial activity of eighty British companies and built four-factor predictive model (Raei et al., 2016).

Taking into account the inflationary factors and differences in the legislative framework, the use of this four-factor predictive model does not fully fit for diagnosing of the Russian enterprises' failures. One of the reasons is overestimated capital assets, because the significance of the outmoded assets is exaggerated and almost equates the significance of the capital assets. All these factors unreasonably lead to the growth in the proportion of the own capital due to the overestimation of assets.

One of the most qualitative methods that are used in the diagnostics of the enterprise's solvency is Argenti method. It is also called A-score and is associated with managerial crisis. The basis of the A-score method research is the following hypothesis: managerial deficiencies lead to the business failure and to the development of managerial crisis. The research of managerial crisis is a multi-year process that leads the enterprise to the failure. The process of the failure occurrence can be divided into three stages:

  1. The company demonstrates a range of deficiencies that "lead" to the failure, that is a range of deficiencies becomes evident even several years before the factual failure takes place.

  2. Constant manifestation of the company's deficiencies and, as a result of the accumulation of these deficiencies, there is a high probability of mistakes on that part of the company that can lead to the failure.

  3. All the signs of the approaching insolvency manifest themselves in the company's...

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