The Impact of COVID-19 on Gun Violence Across Census Tracts in NYC

• Author: Dae-Young Kim
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/10887679221077036
• Published date: 01 November 2022
• Date: 01 November 2022
• Subject Matter: Special Issue Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/10887679221077036

Homicide Studies

2022, Vol. 26(4) 379 –402

© 2022 SAGE Publications

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DOI: 10.1177/10887679221077036

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Special Issue Article

The Impact of COVID-19 on

Gun Violence Across Census

Tracts in NYC

Dae-Young Kim1

Abstract

This study explores the impact of COVID-19 on gun violence in NYC and its

interactive effects with neighborhood factors at the census tract level. Random

effects negative binomial models are used to analyze monthly data from January

2017 to March 2021. There was a significant increase in gun violence during the

pandemic. In addition, poverty, economic inequality, African Americans, Hispanics,

residential mobility, and total population were significantly associated with increases

in gun violence. However, there were no significant interaction effects between the

pandemic and neighborhood characteristics. This study concludes with a discussion

of study limitations and implications.

Keywords

COVID-19, BLM protests, gun violence, neighborhood covariates, pandemic

Introduction

On March 11, 2020, the WHO declared the coronavirus a global pandemic as it had

exponentially spread across the world. In the United States, state governments have

enacted a range of social distancing policies, as well as pharmaceutical interventions,

to diminish the risk of in-person coronavirus contagion. The restrictions that were

placed on individuals have entailed school and business closings, bans on social gath-

erings, and so on. Under the stay-at-home orders (SAHOs), individuals were only

allowed to travel for essential functions or needs. Restrictions in mobility were effec-

tive in preventing the spread of the coronavirus and resulting deaths, but they were not

1State University of New York – Buffalo State, Buffalo, USA

Corresponding Author:

Dae-Young Kim, Criminal Justice Department, State University of New York, 1300 Elmwood Avenue,

Buffalo, NY 14222, USA.

Email: kimd@buffalostate.edu

1077036HSXXXX10.1177/10887679221077036Homicide StudiesKim

research-article2022

380 Homicide Studies 26(4)

without costs. The pandemic and social distancing policies led to record levels of

unemployment and financial hardship (Falk et al., 2020; Horowitz et al., 2021). Low-

income and minority adults have borne the brunt of coronavirus-related job or wage

loss and are particularly vulnerable to the adverse economic effects of the pandemic

(Horowitz et al., 2021). Individuals underwent physical and social isolation and result-

ing psychological distress, including stress, insecurity, anxiety, and/or depression

(Clair et al., 2021). People were likely to drink more alcohol and develop an alcohol

use disorder during the volatile state of the pandemic (Grossman et al., 2020; Pollard

et al., 2020; Tingley, 2021).

In these historical contexts, there were substantial increases in the numbers of people

shot and killed or injured (Everytown Research & Policy, 2021). Individuals were more

likely to engage in gun violence due to various types of stress and strain associated with

physical isolation, economic hardship, poor health care, and other negative experiences

associated with the pandemic. Based on the criminal background check system, it was

estimated that more than 22 million guns were purchased in 2020, indicating a 64%

increase compared to 2019 (Everytown Research & Policy, 2021; Savidge & Cartaya,

2021). Recent gun purchases may be attributable to a sense of uncertainty and fear about

potential social disorder and violence in a volatile state of the pandemic; thus, many

individuals bought their first or additional guns for personal protection (Kraviz-Wirtz

et al., 2020). Prior research has shown that gun violence is more prevalent in states with

high levels of gun ownership, and gun availability is more significantly related to gun

violence against non-strangers, as opposed to strangers (Siegel et al., 2013, 2014).

Understanding the impact of the pandemic on gun violence is essential for guiding

decision making in public health and criminal justice to reduce the number of firearm

deaths and injuries. Prior research has examined whether and how the pandemic and

social distancing policies exert significant impacts on gun violence across cities. The

empirical evidence thus far is mixed. Some studies showed no changes in gun violence

following the SAHOs (Abrams, 2020; Campedelli et al., 2021). Given the use of short-

term post-intervention data (from March to May 2020 or March 2021 only), these

studies failed to acknowledge that the pandemic might take a long time to exert its

impact on gun violence. With relatively long-term post-intervention data, on the other

hand, others found significant increases in gun violence during the pandemic (Kim,

2021; Kim & Phillips, 2021; Rosenfeld & Lopez, 2020). Finally, the findings of prior

studies are limited since they analyzed city-level variations in gun violence without

taking into account neighborhood-level variations in a given city, warranting further

research with small geographic units.

Using census tract data in NYC from January 2017 to March 2021, this study exam-

ines the impact of the pandemic on gun violence. It expands on prior work by adjusting

for various neighborhood structural factors that can possibly confound the pandemic-

gun violence association and exploring whether the pandemic interacts with neighbor-

hood structural factors in its effect on gun violence. Despite the seriousness of the

pandemic and gun violence, not enough research has explored increases in gun vio-

lence, especially in small geographic units. This study will help readers have a more

nuanced understanding of increases in gun violence during the pandemic.