The impact of climate change on maize yields and its variability in Telangana, India: A panel approach study

• Date: 01 August 2020
• Author: Raju Guntukula,Phanindra Goyari
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2088
• Published date: 01 August 2020

ACADEMIC PAPER

The impact of climate change on maize yields and its variability

in Telangana, India: A panel approach study

Raju Guntukula | Phanindra Goyari

School of Economics, University of Hyderabad,

Hyderabad, Telangana, India

Correspondence

Raju Guntukula, School of Economics,

University of Hyderabad, Hyderabad,

Telangana, India.

Email: rajug@uohyd.ac.in

Abstract

The present study explores the effect of climate change on maize yields and its

variance in Telangana utilizing Just–Pope production function, spanning the period

1956–2015. The three-step feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) method is

employed to estimate the Just and Pope production function. The empirical results of

the work reveal that the average minimum temperature has a significant unfavorable

effect on maize yield in Telangana. Maximum temperature and actual rainfall are pos-

itively related with maize yield; however, the maximum temperature is not statisti-

cally significant. Furthermore, rainfall and minimum temperature are risk-shrinking

factors, but the maximum temperature is a risk-enhancing factor for maize yields dur-

ing the study period. The study results have key implications for developing suitable

local level adaptation policies in Telangana.

1|INTRODUCTION

There is a rising concern among the policymakers and scholars of the

environment on changing climate due to natural and anthropogenic

activities.Because the sources andscale of climate change are arguable,

the scientific evidence of alterations in rainfall, temperature, and other

climatological factorsis unquestionable(Barnwal & Kotani, 2013;Nath &

Mandal, 2018).The changes in climaticfactors will have austereimplica-

tions for weather-sensitive systems, namely, socioeconomic, biophysi-

cal, and ecological systems (Li, Takahashi, Suzuki, & Kaiser, 2011).

Amongst severalsectors adversely impactedby climate variability,farm-

ing is assumed to be the more vulnerable sector(Sarker, Alam, & Gow,

2012). The climate variables viz. temperature and rainfall are input-

factors to the crop-growing sector. A slightchange in these variables is

inevitable to have a substantial effect on crop output (Gupta, Sen, &

Srinivasan,2014). The unfavorable effectsof climate sensitivity on agri-

culture aremore in undeveloped nations, suchas India (Kumar & Parikh,

2001). The major attention of former empirical investigations has been

in advancedcountries. However,sensitivity and vulnerability to extreme

climatic events can be higher in developing nations, where agriculture

plays a more significant role in economicdevelopment (Guiteras, 2009).

A very minimal number of studies have been conducted to assess the

effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in the context of

developing nations particularly at the regional level. Hence, this study

examines the effect of climate related factors on maize yield in the

Indian stateof Telangana.

The adverse effects of climatechange and extreme climaticevents

are more severe for India because India has inadequate arable land but

greaterdependence of the population on farming(Mendelsohn, Dinar,&

Williams, 2006; Stern, 2006). In addition,India has limited technological

progress and economic capabilities for mitigation and coping with cli-

mate change (Birthal, Khan, Negi, & Agarwal, 2014). Moreover, the

effects of climatic variables are anticipated to be severe because they

have largely rain-fed cultivation area (about 50%). Agricultural sector is

the backbone of the Indian economy. This sector has approximately

15% share in India's gross national output, and it is providing 54% of

employmentto the country's workforce.There are also significantfront-

ward as well as backward links to agriculture from the remaining

sectors.

The average temperature has presented a significant upsurge in

warming in India up to 0.4C by utilizing statistics from 73 climatologi-

cal stations spanning the period 1901–1982 (Hingane, Kumar, &

Murty, 1985). Similarly, the average yearly temperature for India

presents significant warming up movement of 0.51C covering the

1901–2007 period (Kothawale, Munot, & Kumar, 2010). Moreover,

the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) has predicted that precipitation over India will rise by 10–12%

with greater frequent and extreme rainfall days. Furthermore, the

Received: 11 November 2019 Revised: 13 January 2020 Accepted: 28 January 2020

DOI: 10.1002/pa.2088

J Public Affairs. 2020;20:e2088. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/pa © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd 1of11

https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2088