The Impact of Aggregate Level Alcohol Consumption on Homicide Rates: A Time Series Analysis

• Author: TK Vinod Kumar
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/0306624X211028774
• Published date: 01 May 2023
• Date: 01 May 2023
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/0306624X211028774

International Journal of

Offender Therapy and

Comparative Criminology

2023, Vol. 67(6-7) 640 –661

© The Author(s) 2021

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DOI: 10.1177/0306624X211028774

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Article

The Impact of Aggregate

Level Alcohol Consumption

on Homicide Rates: A Time

Series Analysis

TK Vinod Kumar1

Abstract

Consumption of alcohol has an impact on violent crimes and homicides. The study

examines the association between aggregate level consumption of spirit and homicide

rates in the State of Kerala in India. Time-series analyses were conducted by building

Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARMAX) models and

OLS Regression models to explain the relationship between the monthly rate of

consumption of alcoholic spirits and homicide rates. The study concludes that

consumption of alcoholic spirits has a statistically significant impact on the total

homicide rates and the male and female homicide rates. The study has significant

policy implications being one of the first studies examining the relationship between

alcohol consumption and homicide rates in India and suggesting methods to

address challenges of adverse public health consequences associated with alcohol

consumption.

Keywords

alcohol consumption, homicide rates, time series analysis, alcohol policy, India

Introduction

Consumption of alcohol impacts individual and public health (Rehm et al., 2009;

Room, 2013). Alcohol use has an influence on mortality rates and disease across the

world (Darke, 2010; Heron, 2012). It is a causal factor for the occurrence of commu-

nicable and non-communicable disease and injuries. Studies have demonstrated a

1Indian Police Service, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, India

Corresponding Author:

TK Vinod Kumar, Indian Police Service, Pattom, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala 695004, India.

Email: tkvkcj@gmail.com

1028774IJOXXX10.1177/0306624X211028774International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative CriminologyVinod Kumar

research-article2021

Vinod Kumar 641

significant positive association between alcohol consumption and violent crime

(McMurran, 2013; Zhang et al., 1997) and between consumption of alcohol and homi-

cide (Norström, 2011; Pridemore & Chamlin, 2006). Studies affirming the relationship

between alcohol consumption and homicide have mainly been conducted in developed

societies like the United States (Landberg & Noström, 2011; Parker & Cartmill, 1998),

Russia (Lysova & Pridemore, 2010; Pridemore, 2002; Stickley & Razvodovsky,

2012), Canada (Rossow, 2004), and Europe (Rossow, 2001), with a few studies con-

ducted in non-Western settings (Mathews et al., 2009; Sánchez et al., 2011).

There are no empirical studies that have examined the relationship between alcohol

and homicide in India. This paper addresses this lack of research by examining the

association between alcohol consumption and homicide in the State of Kerala in India.

Using monthly data across 10 years (2010–2019), time series analyses were conducted

to build models and examine the impact of alcohol consumption on the occurrence of

homicide in the State. The study also examines the variation in the impact of alcohol

consumption on homicide victimization across genders.

Literature Review

Research examining the relationship between alcohol consumption and homicide has

been conducted using individual level and aggregate level data. Individual level stud-

ies have revealed that offenders and/or victims have been drinking at the time or before

the offence (Dearden & Payne, 2009). There are different theories explaining the rela-

tionship between individual alcohol consumption and violence. They have been

broadly classified into three groups by Bushman (1997)- the disinhibition theory, the

expectancy model, and the indirect causal model. The disinhibition theory is based on

the premise that ethanol weakens the capacity of the cognitive structure in the frontal

cortex of the brain to inhibit aggressive behavior. Alcohol consumption results in

impairment of judgement, leading to ascribing lesser importance to long term conse-

quences, and acting on short term situational factors and precipitating violence (Steele

& Josephs, 1990). It lowers inhibition, slows reaction, and reduces avoidance behavior

and defensive action during serious situations (Buddie & Parks, 2003). The expec-

tancy model holds that a person’s learned beliefs about alcohol drives aggressive

behavior (Giancola, 2013). The consumer of alcohol expects to become aggressive,

and like a self-fulfilling prophecy, the person’s behavior is influenced by the expecta-

tions. On the other hand, the indirect causal model posits that there is an interaction

between the cognitive and emotional impact of alcohol and situational factors (Assaad

& Exum, 2002; Giancola, 2013).

An alternative methodology used is by examining aggregate level data to determine

whether a change in consumption of alcohol results in the change in the levels of vio-

lence in the population. At the societal level, the relationship between aggregate levels

of alcohol consumption and violence, including homicide, has been found to be true

(Hockin et al., 2018; Room & Rossow, 2001). The aggregate level relationship between

alcohol consumption and violence can be explained as due to various social mecha-

nisms. The increase in consumption of alcohol lead to more number of people drinking