The Hispanic dynamic: how will the rapidly growing Latino population affect politics and policy?

• Author: Jacobson, Louis
• Position: DEMOGRAPHICS

One of the most notable demographic developments today is the growth of the Latino population in America--a development that's having a big impact on politics and policy.

Since 1970, the number of Hispanics has increased 592 percent; that's more than 10 times the overall U.S. growth rate. By 2050, the Census Bureau estimates the number of people of Latin-American or Spanish-speaking descent will reach 106 million, representing the largest segment of a new "majority minority." Whites by then are expected to make up slightly less than 50 percent of the U.S. population.

What does this mean for the nation generally, and state politics and policy specifically?

Similar yet Diverse

Although the terms Hispanic and Latino are used interchangeably to identify the Hispanic population as a whole, the group is far from monolithic. Individuals differ in several important ways.

One is national origin. Hispanics of Mexican descent are the nation's largest subgroup by far, accounting for 64 percent of all Hispanics in 2012. But they are hardly the only subgroup. Next in size are Puerto Ricans, Salvadorans and Cubans. And Hondurans, Panamanians and Venezuelans have increased most recently. In fact, people with roots in 11 Latin American countries have populations greater than 1 million in the U.S.

National origin often correlates with educational level, English skills, homeownership rates, poverty rates, income levels and average age.

Cuban-Americans are a good example of how national origin can affect other demographic factors. "There are well-known differences between Cubans, especially older Cubans, and other Hispanics," says Melissa R. Michelson, a Menlo College political scientist. "Cubans tend to be wealthier, better educated and older" than Hispanics generally.

Because Latinos have arrived in the United States in waves, generational affiliations often shape individual outlooks.

Currently, the Hispanic population skews young: Each month, about 67,000 Latinos turn 18--about 800,000 per year, says Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO). All told, nearly one in four Americans under 18 is Latino.

The new "U.S.-born, young Latinos are not as religiously affiliated as other Latinos, they get their news from the Internet more than other Latinos and they use technology just as much as other young Americans," says Mark Hugo Lopez, director of Hispanic research at the Pew Research Center. "This group will shape the views and characteristics of adult Latinos moving forward."

Growth Is Widespread

"The Latinization of the U.S. population and its spread to states throughout the nation" was inevitable, says Douglas Massey, a Princeton University sociologist.

As California stepped up security at its border in the 1990s, unauthorized border crossings shifted to Arizona, pushing Mexican and Central American immigrants toward new destinations across the United States--from the East Coast to suburban communities just about everywhere, says James Aldrete, a political consultant based in Austin, Texas.

The 10 states with the fastest growing Hispanic populations between 2000 and 2011 ranged from South Dakota to Georgia, but were mostly concentrated in the Southeast. In each, the Hispanic population more than doubled during that period, sometimes from a relatively small base.

But it is not immigration that's driving most of the growth currently. It's birth rates.

At the moment, the growth is not coming from unauthorized immigration, says Jeffrey Passel, a senior demographer at the Pew Research Center. "In fact, more unauthorized immigrant Latinos are leaving the country than are arriving. The legal immigrant Latino population is increasing steadily, but a large majority of the...