THE GEOPOLITICS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY TRANSITION IN EASTERN AFRICA.

AuthorShihundu, Felix

INTRODUCTION

The current global transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy has created a puzzle worth investigating in both the academic and policy arenas. Energy consumers are rapidly shifting away from fossil fuels, which have defined relations between the few producers and many consumers for too long. According to the "World Energy Outlook 2020," renewables are growing rapidly in all scenarios, with solar energy in the lead. Solar is cheaper than new coal-fired or gas-fired power plants in most countries due to supportive policies and developed technologies. Renewables are projected to meet 80 percent of the growth in global electricity demand by 2030. Hydropower remains the largest renewable source of electricity, but solar is the main driver of growth, followed by onshore and offshore wind. (1)

The rapid energy changes are redefining geopolitical relations, with every country having an opportunity to tap into the available natural resource to produce energy at the local level. Apart from access to finances and technology which are needed to exploit the energy resources, questions linger among academicians and policy makers alike on the political, economic, and social impacts of the rapid renewable energy transitions. Doubts continue to be expressed on whether renewable energy transition is going to be achieved at all and whether its effects are going to be any different from those associated with fossil fuels, such as the resource curse menace. However, most inquiries on the geopolitics of renewable energy tend to focus on the global, developed North because of its access to finances and state-of-the-art technology. This study, on the other hand, focuses on the geopolitics of renewable energy in the global, developing South with a case study taken from a leading region in the supply of critical materials.

The article takes into consideration the fact that transitioning to renewable energy will mean different things to different regions, and it identifies a region that is well endowed with the critical materials required for renewable production and transition. Eastern Africa has the potential of becoming a globally important player in the supply chains for the critical materials needed for efficient and effective renewable energy transitions, despite not having enormous financial and technological prowess. Apart from shedding light on the many doubts about renewable energy transition, this paper will be useful in helping policy makers arrive at logical conclusions in a new area of inquiry in order to ensure sustainable and affordable energy access.

The lack of an adequate framework of analysis has affected most attempts to explore possible geopolitical scenarios of renewable energy transition. Most analyses tend to link renewable energy characteristics to the security notions utilized in regional geopolitics. This study makes four necessary assumptions in order to stabilize the analysis of the geopolitics in Eastern Africa. The first assumption is that renewable energy will replace the current fossil fuel--based energy system in the region. Renewable energy will become the main source of electricity in almost all the sectors. This assumption is supported by the projections of Carbon Tracker, a UK-based think tank. Carbon Tracker's data-backed analysis projects that renewable energy will replace fossil fuels as the main source of energy in major sectors by the mid-2030s. (2) The second assumption is that the region will be able to bridge the huge renewable energy technology gap so that technology and renewables will be sufficient to meet the demand, and, third, that the region will be able to steady and stabilize political, economic and social changes so as not to significantly affect the results of the study. (3) An unstable, violent, and unpredictable socioeconomic and political environment will most likely affect the projections of the study in a negative way; that is, it paves way for insignificant renewable energy transition in the region. The fourth and final assumption for the purposes of analysis is that, the region will be able to act in unison and solidarity in the international relations as far as energy is concerned. This will help the region benefit from economies of scale in harnessing renewable energy potentials and will strengthen negotiations with technologically savvy international partners.

The current cross-border renewable energy initiatives and member-based organizations in Eastern Africa, both governmental and private, point toward potential cooperation avenues that are already in place. A case in point is the cooperation between Kenya and Ethiopia. Ethiopia has contracted Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KenGen) to harness its geothermal potential.

Based on Daniel Scholten's three-tier framework of analysis, which comprises geographical and technical, economic, and interstate relations in a given context (see Figure 1), the paper tends to take a bias toward interstate energy relations to analyze the strategic producer, consumer, and transit countries' realities regarding renewable energy in the region and potential effects on cooperation and conflict. (4) The main components of the interstate energy relations include the strategic realities, policy shifts, and conflict cooperation patterns.

For the purposes of this study, renewable energy is energy derived from natural processes that are replenished constantly, such as solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, hydropower, ocean resources, biofuels, and electricity, and hydrogen derived from those renewable resources. (5) Geopolitics in this context refers to the energy relations and competition over access to strategic locations and natural resources among countries of the Eastern Africa region as well as the international community at large. (6) Also of importance to this article in terms of the renewable energy transition, Eastern Africa may go beyond the ordinary geographically recognized region, because the geopolitics of energy brings different dimensions, connections, and area demarcations. However, the paper does not intend to demarcate any new geographical regions but rather to analyze the potential geopolitical dynamics within and outside the region of study. The geographical scope mainly covers the Horn of Africa countries as well as some Great Lakes countries because of their abundance of critical renewable energy materials. The explicit choice of this article to refer to this region as Eastern Africa is based on the region's energy ties and interdependences.

The countries of Eastern Africa can be grouped into three overlapping power pools: the Central African Power Pool (CAPP), the Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP), and the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP). These power pools provide a regional framework for sharing excess power generated in one country with another country through relevant bilateral agreements. The countries considered in this study largely fall into the EAPP's regional 2040 energy master plan, as shown in Figures 2 and 3.

Renewable energy generation will benefit the Eastern Africa region, as it will the majority of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, by reducing fossil fuel imports, boosting job creation, and more generally fueling economic growth. Despite recent discoveries of oil and gas in Kenya, Uganda, and Somalia, the region has a unique opportunity to leapfrog the fossil fuel--centered development model.

However, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the energy sector cannot be overlooked. The International Energy Agency (IEA) acknowledges that this biggest global economic shock in peacetime since the 1930s is having a severe impact on employment and investment across all sectors. This disruption has sent shock waves through energy markets, with global energy investment expected to shrink by an unparalleled 20 percent in 2020. (7) In the post-pandemic, most countries are yet to step up renewable energy investments and incentives to desired levels. A multidisciplinary study emphasized the importance of post-pandemic state support of the critical sustainable energy sector to effectively recover. Although the effects of the pandemic are ongoing, the study shed more light on the temporalities of energy systems change, energy investment, governance, and energy-related social practices in the pandemic situation. (8)

The IEA's "Africa Energy Outlook 2019" notes that the vast renewable resources in Africa and the falling costs of technology are driving growth in the production, deployment, and distribution of solar photovoltaics and other renewables across the continent. Kenya and Ethiopia are among the leaders on the continent in solar, wind, and hydropower deployment, together with Senegal and South Africa. Kenya is at the forefront of geothermal deployment, and Ethiopia plans to increase capacity to 13.5 gigawatts by 2040, which would make it the second-largest hydropower producer in Africa. (9) Kenya generates more than 80 percent of electricity from a combination of hydropower, geothermal, wind, biomass, and solar power. Tanzania relies heavily on fossil fuels for electricity, and a switch from imported fossil fuels to domestically generated renewable energy will significantly improve its trade balance.

The production and consumption of energy in Africa is in line with the UN's Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7: to ensure access to affordable clean energy and to foster economic development. (10) At the continental level, it is built on Agenda 2063, Africa's vision of accelerated economic and industrial development, which was established by the heads of state and governments of the African Union and incorporated in the national planning frameworks of African countries. (11) All the Eastern Africa states are signatories of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which brings nations together to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change and adapt to its effects. (12) According to a...

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