The Foreign Policy Rhetoric of Populism: Chávez, Oil, and Anti-imperialism

• Author: Cameron G. Thies,Iñaki Sagarzazu
• DOI: 10.1177/1065912918784212
• Published date: 01 March 2019
• Date: 01 March 2019
• Subject Matter: Articles

784212PRQXXX10.1177/1065912918784212Political Research QuarterlySagarzazu and Thies
research-article2018
Article
Political Research Quarterly
2019, Vol. 72(1) 205 –214
The Foreign Policy Rhetoric of Populism: © 2018 University of Utah
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Chávez, Oil, and Anti-imperialism
https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912918784212
DOI: 10.1177/1065912918784212
journals.sagepub.com/home/prq
Iñaki Sagarzazu1 and Cameron G. Thies2
Abstract
Populists are often identified based on their behavior, but the discursive element of their identities is also a frequently
observed characteristic of this type of leader. We examine the determinants of populist foreign policy rhetoric in the
case of Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez. We argue that a leftist populist leader such as Chávez will focus on anti-imperialist
themes, and we consider two mechanisms that may indicate the conditions under which he will use them: diversion,
which would typically be expected from a populist, and capacity. We use time-series analysis of rhetorical data scraped
from the entire corpus of Aló Presidente—Chávez’s weekly television series—to test our hypotheses. The evidence
supports the capacity mechanism, that Chávez is emboldened to use anti-imperialist rhetoric when the price of oil
is high. His rhetoric, thus, matches his resources and ability to provide domestic and international goods to support
his own identity as a protector and savior of the common people from domestic and global elites engaged in the
imperialistic enterprise.
Keywords
populism, foreign policy, rhetoric, Chávez, oil, anti-imperialism
Introduction
and public welfare projects. Absent the oil revenue to
support these domestic public goods, Chávez may attempt
President Hugo Chávez was one of the most recognizable
to divert attention to the United States as the source of all
figures associated with populism in the popular imagina-
Venezuela’s problems. The diversion mechanism is con-
tion and in the academic literature (Hawkins 2009). A
sistent with what we might typically expect from a popu-
strong leader with flamboyant style, he claimed to repre-
list leader. However, the capacity mechanism suggests
sent the marginalized common people of Venezuela by
that higher oil prices enable Chávez to engage in pan-
fighting for them against the traditional political elite at
American strategies to unite the region against the United
home and the corrupting influence of the United States as
States. These projects included multilateral attempts to
the hemispheric and global imperial power. We draw on a
unite trading blocs, provide an international bank as an
discursive approach to begin to think about the foreign
alternative to the International Monetary Fund (IMF),
policy aspects of populism. We develop a theoretical
provide access to cheap oil, as well as many other bilat-
framework for understanding the type of rhetoric associ-
eral initiatives. Such projects require high oil prices and
ated with Latin American (and, more specifically, revenue such that the capacity to engage in anti-imperial-
Venezuelan) foreign policy. The framework expects a
ist rhetoric matches the behavior. This could be consid-
number of potential roles that may be represented rhetori-
ered a political economy model of rhetoric, and while not
cally by Latin American states in similar positions, but
previously theorized by studies of populism, it may prove
we focus on anti-imperialism as a key rhetorical feature
useful to understand the rhetoric of a leftist, resource pop-
of Chávez’s populist foreign policy rhetoric.
ulist such as Chávez.
In addition to identifying anti-imperialism as a key
We test these alternative mechanisms using a dataset
rhetorical feature of populist foreign policy under Chávez,
of all the transcribed Aló Presidente weekly television
we also hypothesize about mechanisms that may explain
when it is used. The diversion mechanism suggests that
1Texas Tech University, Lubbock, USA
Chávez may more frequently invoke anti-imperialist
2Arizona State University, Tempe, USA
rhetoric when the price of oil is low. In the “petro-social-
ist state,” a leader such as Chávez needs the revenues
Corresponding Author:
Iñaki Sagarzazu, Department of Political Science, Texas Tech
from high oil prices to provide public goods for the
University, 11 Holden Hall, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA.
masses, which take the form of stimulating consumption
Email: Inaki.sagarzazu@ttu.edu

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Political Research Quarterly 72(1)
programs broadcast by Chávez. These transcripts, 385 in
approach to populism, even though we recognize that
total, cover the period May 1999–January 2012 and allow
building definitions based on cases is one of the reasons
us to identify the salience of Chávez’s anti-imperialistic
populism has become so contested as a concept.
rhetoric. For all the transcripts, we identify the number of
According to Mudde and Rovira Kaltwasser (2014,
sentences that talk about imperialism and aggregate these
377), there are four main conceptual approaches to popu-
to the quarterly level. We then proceed to create a quar-
lism, including discourse, pathology, style, and strategy.
terly time series that we merge with data on the price of
Populism as a discourse focuses on a set of ideas or a
oil, presidential approval, and other control variables.
“mental map” in which the elites are acting in their own
With these data, we test our theory by running an ordi-
self-interest and, therefore, in opposition to the interests
nary least squares (OLS) regression. We find empirical
of the people. As a pathology, populism is often defined
support for the capacity mechanism. When oil prices are
as a kind of disease affecting democracy that often pro-
high, the frequency of use of anti-imperialist rhetoric
poses reckless and usually more autocratic solutions to
increases. Our findings are suggestive for other leftist
the perceived governance problems of the elite. Populism
leaders relying on natural resource wealth to fund their
as a style is characterized by emotional appeals for simple
populist programs. Our theoretical and empirical frame-
solutions to complex problems. As a strategy, populism
work also helps to advance both the study of populism
involves a “personalistic leader” who “seeks or exercises
and foreign policy, as well as the study of Latin American
government power based on direct, unmediated, uninsti-
foreign policy.
tutionalized support from large numbers of mostly unor-
We proceed with a brief overview of populism and
ganized followers” (Weyland 2001, 14). Each of these
situate our approach within the discursive approach to
connotations refers to internal attributes of populism that
populism, then describe Chávez’s populist project, as
would likely classify Hugo Chávez as a populist. Mudde
well as his reliance on oil revenue to fund domestic and
and Rovira Kaltwasser (2014, 378) note that the style and
foreign policies. Next, we develop a theoretical frame-
strategy approaches to populism typically are “linked to
work that allows us to identify potential foreign policy
flamboyant and strong figures,” such as Chávez.1 Populist
roles that a state such as Venezuela in the Latin American
leaders such as Chávez are also known to subvert demo-
context might adopt. We focus on anti-imperialism and
cratic institutions as in the pathology approach, but it is
generate expectations for mechanisms that may link the
the discursive approach in which leaders such as Chávez
price of oil to the frequency of its invocation. We then
either develop or draw upon an ideology that interests us
describe our data and method, report the results of the
the most in this project.
analyses, and conclude with some more general thoughts
Mudde and Rovira Kaltwasser (2012) propose a “min-
about populist foreign policy.
imal” concept of populism rooted in the discursive
approach, which we also adopt for the purposes of this
A Discursive Approach to Latin
paper. They adopt the definition of Mudde (2004, 543), in
American Populism
which populism is
Populism is a prime example of an “essentially contested”
a thin-centered ideology that considers society to be
(Weyland 2001) or even “fractured” concept (Taggart
ultimately separated into two homogenous and antagonistic
2000). This is, no doubt, due to the problems that scholars
camps, “the pure people” and “the corrupt elite,” and which
encounter when they try to achieve successful alignment
argues that politics should be an expression of the volonté
across the intension (internal attributes), extension (refer-
générale (general will) of the people.
ents in the real world), and a label that covers both
(Gerring 1999, 357–58). Scholars often “add adjectives”
Populism of this sort has experienced multiple waves in
to populism to try and clarify the intension, such as
Latin America, including the classic populism of the
“resource” populism or “leaderless” populism (Collier
1930s and 1960s (e.g., Perón and Vargas), neoliberal pop-
and Levitsky 1997). Others may simply stretch the label
ulism of the 1990s (e.g., Fujimori and Collor de Mello),
of populism to cover more and more disparate cases in
and radical leftist populism of the 2000s (e.g., Chávez
the extension, leading to conceptual stretching. While we
and Morales). Populism in Latin America has clearly
do not intend to resolve...