The Fifth Instrument of National Power: How Mass Migrations Impact National Security

• Publication year: 2022

54 Creighton L. Rev. 381. THE FIFTH INSTRUMENT OF NATIONAL POWER: HOW MASS MIGRATIONS IMPACT NATIONAL SECURITY

THE FIFTH INSTRUMENT OF NATIONALPOWER: HOW MASS MIGRATIONSIMPACT NATIONAL SECURITY

MATTHEW ORMSBEE ^[D1]

I. INTRODUCTION ................................... 382

II. MASS MOVEMENTS OF PEOPLE .................. 383

A. INTRODUCTION ................................... 383

B. DEFINITION ...................................... 385

C. DRIVERS OF MASS MIGRATION .................... 385

D. IMPACTS OF MASS MIGRATION .................... 389

III. CHALLENGES TO NATIONAL SECURITY ......... 390

A. INDIVIDUALS ..................................... 390

B. GROUPS ......................................... 392

C. POLITICAL EQUILIBRIA ............................ 392

D. STATE COMPOSITION ............................. 395

IV. NATIONAL SECURITY PROPOSALS ............... 396

A. THE FIFTH INSTRUMENT OF NATIONAL POWER ..... 396

B. ESTABLISH TRANSNATIONAL FRAMEWORKS AND OBLIGATIONS .................................... 398

1. Model International Mobility Convention ..... 400

2. Migrant Workers Convention ................. 401

3. Refugee Convention .......................... 402

a. The Non-refoulement Paradox ............ 403

b. Greater Rights ........................... 404

4. Defense Interests in Treaty Revisions ......... 405

C. PRIORITIZE INFORMATIONAL POWER IN MULTIDOMAIN OPERATIONS ....................... 406

1. Clarifying Roles ............................. 406

2. Data Collection and Sharing ................. 407

D. VIEW STATE BORDERS AS FLOWS OF PEOPLE ....... 408

V. CONCLUSION ..................................... 410

I. INTRODUCTION

International relations theory deals primarily with individuals joining around defined territories and ideas-states and organizations-leaving a more basic aspect of human activity overlooked: mass movements of people ("MMPs"). ^[1] The shifting sands of mass human migration implicate national security in ways barely perceptible as tens of millions of people relocate annually in search of safety, resources, and comfort. While states and organizations still wield outsized influence in international affairs, individuals, when aggregated, use their beliefs, actions, and mere presence to lend or usurp power and legitimacy from such states and organizations. ^[2]

From a national security perspective, MMPs are neither inherently threatening nor inherently benevolent. Yet the United States Air Force ("USAF") and greater Department of Defense ("DoD") operate in a global environment in which sudden populist disturbances in Turkey, for example, may cause tens of thousands of Turks to flood neighboring states, which may in turn impact American military operations in Syria. ^[3] Thus, in a world where people's movements can shift as unpredictably as weather patterns, handwringing over MMPs should lead to handwringing over American military operations. ^[4]

In this challenging environment, MMPs create an added layer of complexity while military members gather and sift through intelligence in the course of their duties. MMPs tax limited defense bandwidth and contribute to large-scale task saturation because they undermine basic assumptions of global security due to fluid transnational movement of individuals and groups. ^[5] In short, MMPs contribute to what the 2018 National Defense Strategy calls "increased global disorder." ^[6] For this reason, the USAF must boldly view MMPs as an instrument of national power and endorse legal frameworks so that MMPs do not increase military response time, reduce situational awareness, and add to the fog of war.

This Article first describes and examines MMPs in the context of global affairs and international law. Next, it discusses the second order effects of MMPs on the national security of the United States of America and its allies. In particular, it proposes that the USAF reconsider MMPs and squarely address the challenges they raise by viewing them as the fifth instrument of national power ("INP"), in addition to diplomatic, informational, military, and economic power. Viewing MMPs through the lens of an INP, this Article puts forth proposals to remedy the problem of disaggregated information collection and sharing between the U.S. and its allies. Finally, this Article puts forth ancillary proposals for prioritizing informational power and viewing state borders as flows of people and goods.

II. MASS MOVEMENTS OF PEOPLE

A. INTRODUCTION

Humans have traveled en masse since ancient times. ^[7] In fact, human mobility has been called the "defining feature of the human experience." ^[8] Our ancestors crossed the African continent 120 thousand years ago, igniting a common human experience that persists to this day. ^[9] Early civilizations traveled nomadically to follow animal herds as a food source, to locate fresh water, and to reside in hospitable climates. ^[10] Human migrations occur to this day for the same reasons relating to basic survival, but also to avoid political and economic coercion and individual persecution. ^[11] Migrations have been involuntary, as was the case of slave voyages to North America as early as the sixteenth century. ^[12] Mass migrations have also been voluntary: transatlantic migration from Europe to the U.S. spiked in the late nineteenth century, bringing new populations in search of prosperity. ^[13] In addition to voluntary and involuntary migrants, many experts believe there is a large body of migrants who would theoretically migrate if political conditions were more favorable. ^[14]

Of concern, the number of involuntary international migrants, or refugees, is increasing, with a population of displaced migrants now roughly double what it was ten years ago and at levels not seen since World War II. ^[15] Yet in contrast to earlier times, today's governments are able to observe and catalog human migrations in greater detail than ever before with the help of technology that facilitates surveillance and communication. ^[16] Thus, data associated with human migrations can be collected and studied to extract patterns of human movement. ^[17] While technology helps track MMPs to some extent, a deeper understanding of the subject is gained with an understanding of the definition of MMPs and the factors that stoke them.

B. DEFINITION

A human migration is defined as a movement of a significant body of people from one place to another with the intention of settling there temporarily or permanently. ^[18] Such movements are voluntary or forced, legal or illegal (also termed regular or irregular), within a single state or across state borders. ^[19] Refugees are considered a subgroup of migrants seeking asylum due to war, persecution, or natural disaster, or who have obtained protection abroad under the terms of the United Nations Refugee Convention of 1951. ^[20] The UN defines migrants as "any person who is moving or has moved across an international border or within a State away from his/her habitual place of residence . . . ." ^[21] This body of people comprises approximately 272 million people worldwide, or 3.5 percent of the global population. ^[22] In this Article, the terms human migration and MMP are used interchangeably.

MMPs are inherently large-scale phenomena, impacting a state's population, economy, defense priorities, and political stability. ^[23] Thus, for purposes of international relations theory and defense objectives, an intentionally broad definition of MMPs helps capture the wide-ranging and seismic effects of population movements. However, beyond understanding the definition of an MMP, one must also understand what creates and perpetuates MMPs.

C. DRIVERS OF MASS MIGRATION

MMPs are caused and worsened by a number of global factors. Environmental factors include climate change, scarcity of natural resources, and habitat destruction. As climate patterns change, natural resources become harder to collect, habitable land shrinks, and populations inevitably migrate to meet living needs. Social factors include political unrest, armed conflict, state repression, and loss of job opportunities. ^[24] These, too, encourage population migrations to seek physical safety and financial security. ^[25]

Perhaps the main cause of human migration is climate change. ^[26] In 2011, António Guterres, then head of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (and later UN Secretary-General), stated, "[c]limate change is the defining challenge of our time." ^[27] His assertion was based on a growing body of research and scientific observations that support findings of incremental global warming caused in part by human activity on the planet. ^[28] Climate change, whether brought about by human activity alone or in combination with other causes, has a substantial impact on our ability to inhabit certain parts of the planet. ^[29]

Importantly, climate change contributes to scarcity of natural resources and habitat destruction, which in turn fuel MMPs. ^[30] In particular, climate change has historically caused surface temperatures to rise and be more susceptible to fluctuation. ^[31] With temperature fluctuations and a lack of irrigable water for crops in certain regions, populations face shortfalls in food production. ^[32] Current climate trends indicate that on average, as of 2016, twenty-four people are forced to flee their...