The fear-sell: take commentators' dire predictions with a grain of salt.

AuthorPappas, Matthew D.
PositionMoney Talk

When is the next crash coming?" "Is inflation going to skyrocket and the dollar collapse?"

These and similar topics seem to dominate national headlines. Fear of disaster, fear of collapse, doubt in our future. It's interesting that despite the obvious progress in our markets and economy, the dire outlook still resonates. Yet they're nothing new--these negative calls have been on repeat since the financial crisis nearly seven years ago. And evidence shows investors are still buying their advice.

Investment fund manager Peter Schiff, a frequent commentator on networks like CNBC, is a big proponent of investing in gold. For years now he has been calling for a dollar collapse, rampant inflation and gold to become the ultimate safe-haven investment. Take a look at his comments on March 20, 2009:

"Now that the Fed has recklessly shown its hand, the mad dash to get out of treasuries and dollars should not be far off. The more the Fed prints to buy bonds the less the dollar is worth. Holders of our debt understand this dynamic ... With such a policy in place, America has now become a banana republic. It won't be too long before our living standards reflect our new status. Got gold?"

That date marked a bottom in U.S. equity markets followed by a +196 percent return on the S&P500 compared to a 26 percent run up in gold (through the end of 2014). The dollar did not collapse and instead has been increasing. Inflation has trended around 1.85 percent annually (well below the ~3 percent long-term average). Furthermore, the demand for treasury bonds has by and large held strong, a sign that investors continue to flock to the U.S. as a safe haven.

Now, post-Recession, has Schiff changed his views? Not even close. On Jan. 28, 2015, he said, "This year I believe gold prices are going to hit all-time record highs."

Glenn Beck is another popular doomsday figure. In August 2011 he printed the following:

The fact is Moody's has already warned us that no one has put a plan on the table that comes close to solving our long-term problem. Moody's will downgrade us. This could happen tomorrow, in six months or maybe a year from now, but at some point in the near future it's going to happen. And it's going to hurt. So we must be prepared.

Imagine your credit card's interest rates constantly rising. Imagine high inflation eating away at your savings accounts, retirement funds and salary--if you're lucky enough to have one these days ... Imagine that fewer and fewer...

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