The extended forecast.

• Position: North Carolina's economic development

THE EXTENDED FORECAST

Economic development. Banking. Manufacturing. High tech. The travel industry - all forces that are shaping North Carolina's economy.

BUSINESS NORTH CAROLINA asked top executives of some of the most important companies to tell us what forces they expect to shape their industries in the 1990s and beyond.

Economic

development

William S. Lee, chairman and president, Duke Power Co., Charlotte

As we look toward the 21st century, the computer appears to be an appropriate symbol of future economic development in North Carolina. The forces that shape economic development - taxes, roads, demographics, industrial recruitment, energy supplies - are the visible components, the hardware, of this symbolic computer.

We can craft our computer with care. We can shape our tax policies, build roads, aggressively recruit industry and provide an ample supply of affordable energy. But what about the software that enables the computer to achieve its potential? Without it, the computer will do nothing more than collect dust.

Education is the software that will drive the future economic development of North Carolina. Our economic future is dependent on our educational system and the availability of a well-educated, skilled work force.

Today, 40 percent of North Carolina's adults do not have a high-school diploma; a quarter of the state's adults did not make it as far as ninth grade. Thirty percent of our high-school students drop out, and many are graduating with degrees that fail to prepare them for today's competitive environment.

Our challenge is twofold: We must improve public education with an aggressive program focused on student achievement. At an annual expenditure of $4 billion a year, education is one of the largest enterprises in the state. We must improve the management of education.

We must hold schools accountable for what students learn, we must attract and retain top-quality educators, and we must give these educators the freedom to do their jobs.

Our second challenge is retraining workers and upgrading their skills. Responsibility for this work-force upgrade in North Carolina needs to be more sharply defined. Government and business need to do more. We need goals aimed both at reducing the number of adults without high-school diplomas and at increasing needed workforce skills. We need adequate funding, and we need to elevate adult education to a more-professional status.

North Carolina is blessed with a work force that can, given the proper tools, sustain our prosperity and growth into the next century. It is up to government, industry and the people of this state to make sure our workers have the education and training necessary to compete in the world marketplace.

If we have the will to act, our computer won't gather dust but will have the quality software needed to be vigorously competitive.

Banking

Edward E. Crutchfield Jr., chairman and CEO, First Union Corp., Charlotte

If you thought the consolidation and competition that marked banking in the 1980s was intense, watch what happens in the 1990s.

The pace of change...