The End Of NAFTA: How Trump's trade wars will affect rural Utah.

• Author: Miller, Derek B.

Amid tense renegotiations of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), 27 Utah companies set out on a business trade mission to Mexico led by Governor Gary Herbert and organized by World Trade Center Utah (WTC Utah). Their goal: establish connections and expand their economic reach in Latin America. Although the future of the trade agreement hangs heavily over many Utah industries, business opportunities with our closest neighbors are still very much available.

Mexico was chosen for the location of the trade mission because, with approximately $850 million in exports each year, it is the fourth largest export market for Utah goods and the second largest export market for US goods. Economic growth in Mexico is closely connected to the United States and has enjoyed stable growth at or over two percent since 2010. Under NAFTA, Mexico has become one of the US's top trading partners.

HOW CHANGES TO NAFTA COULD AFFECT TRADE

In its 24-year history, NAFTA, which was established to set rules for the exchange of goods and services between the United States, Canada, and Mexico, has remained unchanged. Though mostly favorable, reception of NAFTA has been mixed. During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump declared NAFTA as the worst trade deal in US history and cited it with the demise of the nation's manufacturing industry. While all three countries agree that NAFTA should be updated to reflect our modern economy, Mexico and Canada were reluctant to participate as President Trump spearheaded the renegotiations in August of 2017.

Conversations so far have been cumbersome. An agreement was originally expected to come at the end of last year, however, new projections for completion are creeping into 2019. Also uncertain is what the finished product will look like. While a modernized NAFTA could increase market opportunities for American businesses, there is a possibility the agreement will cease to exist. Losing NAFTA would have serious repercussions...