The Electoral Consequences of International Migration in Sending Countries: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

• Author: Junghyun Lim
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/00104140221089646
• Published date: 01 January 2023
• Date: 01 January 2023
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140221089646

Comparative Political Studies

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DOI: 10.1177/00104140221089646

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Article

The Electoral

Consequences of

International Migration

in Sending Countries:

Evidence from Central

and Eastern Europe

Junghyun Lim1

Abstract

This paper examines the political attributes of emigrants and how their

departure affects the electoral outcomes in their home countries. I argue that

emigrants are different from those who remain in their political preferences

as well as economic attributes, such that large-scale emigration changes the

distribution of voters in sending countries. Emigration can also directly affect

the policy preferences of individuals who stay in their home countries. I test

these arguments in seven Central and Eastern European countries, using

individual-level surveys and region-level data on emigration and elections.

To address potential endogeneity issues, I use instrumental variable analysis,

leveraging the surge of Polish emigration to the United Kingdom after the

EU enlargement. I find that emigrants from Central and Eastern Europe tend

to be younger, highly educated, and politically more progressive and that the

vote shares of far-right parties are larger in regions with higher emigration

rates. Also, I find that exposure to large-scale emigration affects the vote

choices of individuals who remain.

1Postdoctoral Fellow, Niehaus Center for Globalization & Governance, Princeton University,

Princeton, NJ, USA

Corresponding Author:

Junghyun Lim, Niehaus Center for Globalization & Governance, Princeton Univesity,

Princeton, NJ, USA.

Email: jul95@pitt.edu

1089646

CPSXXX10.1177/00104140221089646Comparative Political StudiesLim

research-article2022

2023, Vol. 56(1) 36–64

Lim 37

Keywords

migration, globalization, political economy, elections, public opinion, voting

behavior

Introduction

While Western Europe and the United States are receiving a large influx of

immigrants, many other countries and regions are experiencing net outflows

of their population. Over the last two decades, Central and Eastern Europe

have lost nearly 20 million people as a result of emigration, which is approxi-

mately 5.5 percent of their population (Atoyan et al., 2016). When emigration

occurs on such a large scale, what are the electoral consequences in sending

countries?

In this paper, I analyze the economic and political attributes of emigrants

from Central and Eastern European countries and how their departure affects

the electoral outcomes in their home countries. These two inquiries are

closely connected. Depending on the characteristics of emigrants, their exit

can have different effects on the remaining population. When emigrants are

different from those who remain in their political preferences, emigration

can change the distribution of voters in sending countries. Also, large-scale

emigration can directly affect the policy preferences of individuals who

remain behind. I argue that emigrants from Central and Eastern Europe are

disproportionately more politically progressive, making the remaining vot-

ers more conservative and predisposed to supporting far-right parties. Thus,

regions with a higher emigration rate will have greater support for far-right

parties.

Far-right parties in Central and Eastern Europe share some similarities

with far-right parties in Western Europe. Nativist populism is central to far-

right parties in both regions (Minkenberg, 2002; Mudde, 2007; Golder, 2016).

Like their counterparts in Western Europe, far-right parties in Central and

Eastern Europe mobilize their voters against ethnic minorities and immi-

grants especially with non-EU backgrounds (Bustikova, 2018). They take

extremely conservative positions in social and cultural issues, such as the

rights of sexual minorities and ethnic and cultural minorities.1

These characteristics correspond to the profiles of individuals who sup-

port far-right parties in Central and Eastern Europe. Voters with culturally

more conservative and anti-immigrant attitudes are likely to support far-right

parties (Allen, 2017). Thus, the emigration of socially and politically pro-

gressive voters, who would be less likely to support far-right parties if they

stayed, will benefit the far-right parties in their home countries.