The Effects of Initiatives On Voter Turnout: a Comparative State Analysis

• DOI: 10.1177/106591298103400308
• Published date: 01 September 1981
• Date: 01 September 1981
• Subject Matter: Articles

THE EFFECTS OF INITIATIVES ON VOTER
TURNOUT:
A COMPARATIVE STATE ANALYSIS
DAVID H. EVERSON
Illinois Legislative Studies CenterlSangamon State University
HE
UNITED STATES currently faces a serious problem of declining
a
voter participation in national elections. Some observers have
-~ suggested that the decline may result from the fact that voters do not
connect the vote with choices which affect their own lives. Harlan Hahn has
written that &dquo;millions of Americans may fail to become actively involved in
the political process simply because they do not feel that there are adequate
opportunities presently available to express their sentiments or to make their
influence felt.&dquo;’ Recently, there has been a movement to establish, by con-
stitutional amendment, a national initiative which would allow citizens to
propose and vote on legislation.2 One byproduct of such a reform could be
increased voter involvement and participation. Of course, the U.S. has ex-
tensive experience with initiatives at the state level. This experience might
give some clues to the answer to the question of whether a national initiative
might spur citizen sense of involvement and therefore have a positive impact
on voter turnout. This paper addresses that question via an analysis of the
effects of initiatives in the states on voter turnout from 1960 to 1978.
TURNOUT DECLINE
Citizen participation, as measured by voter turnout, has fallen precipi-
tously irx recent years:
In its broad contours, the scope of the phenomenon is clear enough. The
proportion of the voting age population casting ballots in presidential elec-
tions has fallen from a post war peak of 63.1 percent in 1960 to a trough of
54.4 percent in 1976, the lowest level since 1948. This represents the longest
continuous decline in turnout since the days of William Jennings Bryan.3
In addition, turnout has fallen in off-year elections since 1962, and the
drop-off is most pronounced in the large industrialized states.4 In 1978,
NOTE: This paper was prepared with support from the Citizen Participation in Government
Foundation. In addition, I wish to thank Rita Harmony, graduate assistant in the Legisla-
tive Studies Center, for her invaluable help in gathering data and organizing this paper.
Finally I wish to acknowledge the useful comments on earlier drafts of the paper by
Gerald Benjamin, Thomas E. Cronin, and Joan Parker.
1
"A National Initiative: A Potential Cure for Political Alienation," in the U.S. Senate, Judiciary
Committee, Subcommittee on the Constitution, Voter Initiative Constitutional Amendment
Hearings, December 13 and 14, 1977, p. 190.
2 For debate on the proposal, see the extensive public record provided in the hearings cited in
footnote 1. Also see: Gary E. Gammon, "Direct Democracy Nationwide," paper prepared
for delivery at the Annual Meeting of the Southwestern Political Science Association,
Houston, Texas, April 2-5, 1980.
3
Thomas C. Cavanagh, "Changes in American Electoral Turnout, 1964-1977," paper prepared
for delivery at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association; Chicago,
Illinois, April 19-21, 1979, pp. 1-2. I have also relied upon two unpublished reviews of
the literature related to voter turnout decline. Lawrence M. Mead, "The Decline in Voting
Turnout: A Review," paper prepared for the Conference on Citizen Participation in
Government, New Paltz, N.Y., March 21-23, 1980, and David J. Hadley, "Non-Voting in
America: A Review and Reconsideration," unpublished paper, Wabash College, March,
1980.
4
Cavanagh, "Changes... ," Figure 1. David H. Everson and Joan Parker, "Voter Turnout
Decline," Illinois Issues, June 1979, pp. 4-5.

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416
turnout in congressional elections dropped to its lowest level since 1942.~ To
be sure, turnout has increased and decreased periodically in this century.
The recent decline in turnout could be seen as a downturn in a cycle which
goes back to 1920.6 Nevertheless, when turnout in presidential elections
approaches 50 percent and when participation in off-year elections ap-
proaches 33 percent, the trend seems ominous for the legitimacy and effec-
tiveness of American political institutions.
The problem of turnout decline has, of course, caught the attention of
analysts, particularly since it has gone on despite numerous demographic
trends which would lead one to expect the opposite. For example, as
Cavanagh notes, &dquo;the increase in educational levels, independent of other
factors, should have been sufficient to increase turnout by approximately 6.5
percent since 1964.&dquo;~ In the face of educational advances, the recent
downturn in participation is puzzling. Since voting is a two-step process in
the United States, registration restrictions can constitute a significant barrier
to participation. If registration requirements had been stiffened recently,
this might account for the decline. However, precisely the opposite has oc-
curred : &dquo;The changes in registration regulations over the past 20 years
would lead us to expect higher rather than lower turnout rates.&dquo;8 Despite the
easing of registration requirements, the actual percentage of registered vot-
ers has declined.9 The upshot is that a better educated population con-
fronted with easier registration procedures is voting at a lower rate.
Examination of turnout decline, therefore, has turned to voter attitudes
and motivation.1o As David J. Hadley has noted: &dquo;... the attitudinal compo-
nent
offers ... our best
...
hope for explaining recent trends toward non-
voting.&dquo;&dquo; Some argue that a generalized &dquo;political malaise&dquo; or an increase in
political cynicism is the cause of the drop. Indeed, indicators of concern
about electoral outcomes, political efficacy and political trust all show trend
lines which parallel the slide in voter participation. 12 Voters may be expres-
sing indifference to, or even alienation from, national politics. Nevertheless,
there is no direct, simple, relationship between mistrust of government and
voter participation. 13
INITIATIVES AND TURNOUT
One vehicle to reduce voter alienation and indifference might be direct
participation in policy decisions. In testimony before the Senate subcommit-
tee hearings on the national initiative proposal, Larry L. Berg argued:
5
Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, March 31, 1979, p. 574.
6 Everson, "The Future of Political Parties: A Theoretical Perspective," paper prepared for
delivery at the Southwestern Political Science Association Meeting, March 26-30, 1979,
Figure 2.
7 Cavanagh, "Changes ... ," p. 2. Also see Richard A. Brody, "The Puzzle of Political Participa-
tion in America," in Anthony King, ed., The New American Political System (Washington,
D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1978), pp. 296-97.
8
Brody, ibid., p. 295. Also see V. Lance Tarrance, "Suffrage and Voter Turnout in the United
States: The Vanishing Voter," in Jeff Fishel, ed., Parties and Elections in an Anti-Party Age
(Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1978), p. 78.
9 Cavanagh, "Changes ... ," p. 6.
...