The Effects of Hot Spot Policing on Community Experiences and Perceptions in a Time of COVID-19 and Calls for Police Reform

• Published date: 01 September 2024
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/10986111231202433
• Author: Christopher S. Koper,Weiwei Liu,Bruce G. Taylor,Xiaoyun Wu,William D. Johnson,Jackie Sheridan
• Date: 01 September 2024

Article

Police Quarterly

2024, Vol. 27(3) 292–334

© The Author(s) 2023

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/10986111231202433

journals.sagepub.com/home/pqx

The Effects of Hot Spot

Policing on Community

Experiences and Perceptions

in a Time of COVID-19 and

Calls for Police Reform

Christopher S. Koper

1

, Weiwei Liu

2

, Bruce G. Taylor

2

,

Xiaoyun Wu

1

, William D. Johnson

1

, and Jackie Sheridan

2

Abstract

To extend the limited evidence on how hot spot policing (HSP) strategies affect

community experiences, perceptions, and attitudes, police agencies in two cities

participated in a randomized experiment involving 102 hot spots that were assigned to

a control condition (n= 51) or to receive a HSP program emphasizing patrol,

community engagement, and problem-solving for 14–17 months during 2019 and 2020

(n= 51). Cross-sectional surveys with hot spot community members were conducted

in person before the program (n= 1082) and, due to COVID-19, by mail and internet

afterwards (n= 768) to assess program effects on crime victimization, views of crime

and disorder, and attitudes towards police. In both cities, the evaluation period

overlapped with the COVID-19 pandemic and the national protests for police reform

following the killing of George Floyd by police in Minneapolis during 2020; in one city,

the program was ongoing during these events. Results showed the program had few

effects on community experiences and views, though there were some indications it

may have improved perceptions of police legitimacy and police misconduct in one city.

The findings suggest that HSP strategies do not have harmful effects on community

perceptions and might improve some aspects of police-community relations. However,

1

Department of Criminology, Law, and Society, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA

2

National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago, Bethesda, MD, USA

Corresponding Author:

Christopher S. Koper, Department of Criminology, Law and Society George Mason University

4400 University Drive, MS 6D12, Fairfax, VA 22030.

Email: ckoper2@gmu.edu

weak program implementation, challenges to survey administration, and the occur-

rence of both COVID-19 and the George Floyd incident during the study period

complicate interpretation of the results.

Keywords

hot spot policing, randomized experiment, community surveys, COVID-19, George

Floyd

Introduction

“Hot spot”policing—i.e., policing focused on small geographic places or areas where

crime is concentrated—has been one of the most important policing innovations of

recent decades (Weisburd & Braga, 2019). Police in the United States and elsewhere

commonly use crime mapping and targeted hot spot strategies to address a variety of

crime problems (Braga et al., 2019;Burch, 2012;Koper, 2014;Reaves, 2010;Sherman,

2013;Weir & Bangs, 2007), and numerous evaluations support the effectiveness of

these approaches in reducing crime and disorder (for reviews, see Braga et al., 2019;

Braga & Weisburd, 2020;Lum & Koper, 2017;National Academies of Sciences,

Engineering, and Medicine, 2018;Telep & Weisburd, 2012).

However, there is still considerable concern and debate regarding the impacts of hot

spot policing strategies on other aspects of community well-being including fear,

victimizations not reported to the police, and police-community relationships. The

latter issue is particularly salient in the current context, given recent public backlash

against aggressive policing, police use of force, and racially disparate policing, par-

ticularly in the United States. In addition to their intrinsic value in a democratic society,

police strategies that enhance police-community relationships may also bolster crime

prevention efforts, as some evidence suggests that people are more likely to obey the

law, offer cooperation, and support the police when they view the police as legitimate

(e.g., Peyton et al., 2019;Sunshine & Tyler, 2003;Tyler, 1990,2004;Tyler & Fagan,

2008; also see NRC, 2004). While these issues have been longstanding concerns in

policing, they have been reemphasized by President Obama’s Task Force on 21st

Century Policing (2015) as well as by many police leaders and scholars (e.g., Lum &

Nagin, 2017;National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2018,

NRC, 2004;Rosenbaum, 2019;Tyler, 2004).

Despite these concerns, research on hot spot policing and community perceptions is

very limited and inconclusive. To extend that evidence base, we present results from a

randomized experiment testing the impacts of a community- and problem-oriented hot

spot patrol strategy implemented in two cities on the East Coast of the United States. As

described below, we collected surveys before and after program implementation from

thousands of community members living or working in 102 hot spots that were as-

signed to intervention or control conditions across the two cities. Using these data, we

Koper et al.293

assess the effects of the hot spot policing program on victimization and a range of

community members’views related to crime, disorder, fear, and their local police

agencies.

Another notable feature of this study is that it overlapped with the onset of the

COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 as well as the protests and calls for police reform and

social justice that erupted nationally in the summer of 2020 following the killing of

George Floyd by police in Minneapolis. Our study provides some tentative insights into

how these events may have impacted community perceptions and whether hot spot

policing had any beneficial or harmful impacts in this context.

Policing and Community Views in High-Crime Locations

In brief, hot spot policing strategies focus police activity on specific addresses, street

blocks, intersections, and clusters of blocks where crime is disproportionately con-

centrated. These approaches are grounded in research showing that about half of crime

in a jurisdiction generally occurs at 5% or less of its street blocks (for a review, see

Weisburd, 2015). Further,thisconcentration is stable over time, due in large measure to

chronic problem locations that have social and environmental features that cause,

attract, or facilitate criminal and disorderly behavior (e.g., see Andresen et al., 2017;

Brantingham & Brantingham, 1993;Curman et al., 2015;Eck & Weisburd, 1995;Groff

& Lockwood, 2014;Groff et al., 2010;Koper et al., 2015a;Sherman et al., 1989;

Weisburd et al., 2004,2012).

Although police have had considerable success in reducing crime and disorder with

hot spot policing, the effects of these efforts on community members’views of police

and their communities are understudied areas and less clear. On the one hand, hot spot

policing might promote positive views. Many members of the public support greater

police presence in their communities, particularly in high-crime areas (e.g., Chermak

et al., 2001;Hawdon et al., 2003;Saad, 2020;Shaw, 1995). For those who live and

work in hot spots, greater police presence might enhance their feelings of safety as well

as their sense of receiving a needed and fair allocation of police resources (thus

improving their sense of distributive justice—see NRC, 2004). Police might also

develop and sustain good relations with community members in hot spots if they use

community-oriented policing approaches (Gill et al., 2014;NAS, 2018;Skogan, 2019)

and interact with community members in a respectful, empathetic, and fair manner

(Mazerolle et al., 2013;Walters & Bolger, 2019). Reductions in crime, disorder, and

fear caused by hot spot policing might further enhance public views of the police (e.g.,

see Haberman et al., 2016;Wheeler et al., 2020) and also strengthen community

collective efficacy, thus improving the ability of residents and workers to self-regulate

behavior through informal social controls (Sampson et al., 1997;Weisburd et al., 2021).

On the other hand, some have raised concerns that hot spot policing approaches may

have a ‘backfire effect,’eroding police-community relations and even increasing fear

and undermining collective efficacy, particularly if police emphasize aggressive

enforcement-oriented strategies (e.g., Kochel, 2011;Rosenbaum, 2019). For example,

294 Police Quarterly 27(3)