The Effect of Housing Demolitions on Crime in Buffalo, New York

• Author: Dae-Young Kim,Andrew P. Wheeler,Scott W. Phillips
• DOI: 10.1177/0022427818757283
• Date: 01 May 2018
• Published date: 01 May 2018
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

The Effect of Housing

Demolitions on Crime

in Buffalo, New York

Andrew P. Wheeler

1

, Dae-Young Kim

2

,

and Scott W. Phillips

2

Abstract

Objectives: From 2010 through 2015, the city of Buffalo demolished over

2,000 residences. This study examines whether those demolitions resulted

in crime reductions. Methods: Analysis was conducted at microplaces

matching demolished parcels to comparable control parcels with similar

levels of crime. In addition, spatial panel regression models were estimated

at the census tract and quarterly level, taking into account demographic

characteristics of neighborhoods. Results: We find that at the microplace

level, demolitions cause a steep drop in reported crime at the exact parcel

and result in additional crime decreases at buffers of up to 1,000 feet away.

At the census tract level, results indicated that demolitions reduced part 1

crimes, but the effect was not statistically significant across different models.

Conclusions: While concerns over crime and disorder are common for

vacant houses, the evidence that housing demolitions are an effective crime

reduction solution is only partially supported by the analyses here. Future

1

School of Economic, Political, and Policy Sciences—Criminology Program, The University of

Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX, USA

2

SUNY Buffalo State, Buffalo, NY, USA

Corresponding Author:

Andrew P. Wheeler, School of Economic, Political, and Policy Sciences—Criminology

Program, The University of Texas at Dallas, 800 West Campbell Road, Mail Station GR 31,

Richardson, TX 75080, USA.

Email: apwheele@gmail.com

Journal of Research in Crime and

Delinquency

2018, Vol. 55(3) 390-424

ªThe Author(s) 2018

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DOI: 10.1177/0022427818757283

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research should compare demolitions in reference to other neighborhood

revitalization processes.

Keywords

demolitions, foreclosures, microplaces, neigh borhoods, situational crime

prevention

Introduction

Vacant and abandoned properties have been viewed as one of the most

pressing problems facing residents and communities in rust-belt cities. They

are a symbol of urban deterioration and often associated with many local

problems including, but not limited to, lost tax revenues, disinvestment,

declining local economies, and increased risk of crime (Hackworth

2016). The importance of improving the urban environment in ru st-belt

cities has arisen as a public policy agenda to revitalize neighborhoods and

improve quality of life for residents.

Demolition programs have been employed to address the problems of

vacant and abandoned properties as an urban land use policy (Hackworth

2016; Silverman, Yin, and Patterson 2015; Spader, Schuet z, and Cortes

2016; Yin and Silverman 2015). In this study, the issue in question is

whether demolitions affect crime and disorder in a rust-belt city. Vacant

and abandoned structures undermine informal social control in a neighbor-

hood and increase situational opportunities for crime and disorder (Spelman

1993). The basic logic of using demolitions as a crime reduction strategy is

that by removing vacant and abandoned properties that are visible signs of

social disorganization, crime can potentially be reduced at both the specific

vacant properties and among the greater neighborhood area (Boessan and

Chamberlain 2017).

Because little research has been done to evaluate the extent to which

demolitions reduce crime, it is imperative to accumulate further evidence of

the efficacy of demolitions as a crime control strategy. The present study

will fill a gap in the literature by examining the effectiveness of demolitions

in Buffalo, which has high rates of vacancy and crime. Buffalo conducted

over 2,000 demolitions in the study period, giving the analysis ample power

to detect effects on subsequent crime reductions. This analysis estimates

crime reduction effects at the microplace level of parcels (Weisburd 2015)

by examining crime decreases at the exact parcel or in nearby buffer areas

compared to matched control parcels. But, the microlevel analysis cannot

Wheeler et al. 391

explain whether crime fell relative to the loss in population and is also

limited in finding control parcels in comparable neighborhoods. So addi-

tionally, this study estimates neighborhood-level spatial autoregressive

models at the census tract and quarterly level. This approach takes into

account demographic factors that may cause demolitions to be spuriously

associated with crime.

Literature Review

Foreclosure, Vacancy, and Crime

Foreclosure and vacancy are often precursors to residences that are demol-

ished, and a recent and growing literature has found that foreclosure and

vacancy are associated with crime and disorder (Arnio, Baumer, and Wolff

2012; Baumer, Wolff, and Arnio 2012; Boessan and Chamberlain 2017;

Chamberlain et al. 2018; Ellen, Lacoe, and Sharygin 2013; Lacoe and Ellen

2015; Lin and Walsh 2015; Spelman 1993; Wallace, Hedberg, and Katz

2012). Foreclosed and vacant properties are often considered a type of

physical disorder in an urban neighborhood (Skogan 2015). Potential offen-

ders can interpret the presence of abandoned and vacant properties as an

environmental cue that no one cares about community matters, and informal

social control in a neighborhood has collapsed. Due to the perceived

absence of informal control mechanisms, potential offenders become more

involved in crime and disorder. Foreclosed and vacant properties can also

serve as “a rent-free space” where offenders engage in criminal and dis-

orderly behaviors (Frazier, Bagchi-Sen, and Knight 2013:55).

It should be noted, however, that Kirk and Hyra (2012) found a spurious

relationship between foreclosure and crime rates. These authors reported

that residential instability, community disadvantage, and a communi ty’s

political influence were the best predictors of crime using 76 community

areas in Chicago. Additionally, Wolff, Cochran, and Baumer (2014) found

that when matching U.S. counties that experienced higher numbers of fore-

closures to other counties with similar prerecession demographic charac-

teristics, there was no association betw een crime and foreclosures. One

major difference between those specific studies is the spatial unit of anal-

ysis, with each examining larger area s than smaller census divisions or

street blocks.

There are several theories to explain how foreclosure and vacancy lead

to an increase in crime and deviance, and these frameworks provide

mechanisms for understanding the efficacy of using housing demolitions

392 Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 55(3)