The Effect of COVID-19 on Domestic Violence and Assaults

• Author: Mustafa Demir,Suyeon Park
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/07340168211061160
• Published date: 01 December 2022
• Date: 01 December 2022

The Effect of COVID-19 on

Domestic Violence and Assaults

Mustafa Demir

1

and Suyeon Park

1

Abstract

The purpose of this research was to examine the effect of COVID-19 on four outcomes including

calls for service for domestic violence, calls for service for assaults, arrests for domestic violence,

and arrests for assaults in Burlington, Vermont. The data for each outcome collected over the time

periods January 2012 through May 2021 were obtained from the Burlington Police Department

website and then a monthly time-series data set were created. The analyses including an indepen-

dent samples t-test, a Poisson regression test, and a monthly interrupted time-series analyses (ITSA)

were employed to test the effects of COVID-19 on the previously mentioned outcomes. The

results of the ITSA showed that in the first month following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic,

domestic violence calls statistically significantly increased, but no statistically significant change was

observed in domestic violence arrests, while assault calls and assault arrests statistically significantly

decreased. In addition, during COVID-19, there was a statistically significant decreasing trend in

domestic violence calls and domestic violence arrests, while there was no statistically significant

change in the trends of assault calls and assault arrests. The results suggest that COVID-19 had

an immediate as well as a persistent effect on the numbers of domestic violence and assaults.

The results and limitations of this study were also discussed.

Keywords

COVID-19, domestic violence, assaults, pandemic, arrests

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in numerous physical, mental, socio-economic effects on individ-

uals and society. As of June 25, 2021, about 179,500,000 individuals were said to be infected by

COVID-19 around the world and about 3,900,000 people had died due to COVID-19 (WHO,

2021). In the United States, as of June 25, 2021, more than 33,400,000 COVID-19 cases and

more than 600,000 deaths were reported (CDC, 2021). The unemployment rate increased to

14.8% in April 2020, resulting from closures of nonessential businesses. Media polls and reports per-

sistently presented the negative impact of the pandemic on the mental health of Americans (Falk

et al., 2021; Panchal et al., 2020; Twenge & Joiner, 2020).

1

Criminal Justice Department, State University of New York at Plattsburgh, Plattsburgh, NY, USA

Corresponding Author:

Mustafa Demir, Criminal Justice Department, SUNYat Plattsburgh, 101 Broad St, Plattsburgh, NY 12901, USA.

Email: mdemi002@plattsburgh.edu

Article

Criminal Justice Review

2022, Vol. 47(4) 445-463

© 2021 Georgia State University

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/07340168211061160

journals.sagepub.com/home/cjr

Public health measures including social distancing and stay-at-home (SAH) orders implemented

globally to control the spread of COVID-19 created circumstances that may however have had a pro-

found impact on criminal offending trends, and hence the association between COVID-19 and

various types of crimes has emerged as a subject of scholarly interest. This growing concern

about an increasing risk of domestic violence during the pandemic was documented by several

authors (Buttell & Ferreira, 2020; Kofman & Garfin, 2020; Sharma & Borah, 2020). As well, non-

profit organizations and researchers warned that the pandemic and its public health control measures

may have set the stage for exacerbating the effects of isolation and heightening the vulnerability of

many to domestic violence and calls for action to address this possible surge in domestic violence

were made (Abramson, 2020; Campbell, 2020; Kumar, 2020; UN Women, 2020; WHO, 2020).

Contrary to the increased potential for domestic violence in the face of the pandemic, the risk of

assaults in public areas away from the home was expected to decrease as a result of social distancing

rules (Ashby, 2020; Campedelli, Favarin et al., 2020; Payne et al., 2020). These issues clearly high-

lighted the need to better understand how COVID-19 might affect violent crime and in what respect.

Hence, it was believed that studying the social conditions and changes that might influence patterns

of violent crimes during situations such as a pandemic was felt to possibly provide insights that could

be important for developing effective policy responses to the pandemic.

Despite the importance of the problem, empirical research on the effects of COVID-19 on domes-

tic violence and assaults is limited. Data on domestic violence in the early stages of the COVID-19

pandemic were based largely on media reports and issue briefs and reliable data on domestic violence

during COVID-19 were scarce (Anurudran et al., 2020; Ertan et al., 2020; Kumar, 2020). There has

been empirical research on the effect of COVID-19 on different types of crimes, including property

and violent offenses (e.g., Ashby, 2020; Mohler et al., 2020; Nivette et al., 2021) as well as domestic

violence (see Piquero et al., 2021), but research that specifically examines whether and how violence

at home and in public spaces have changed during the COVID-19 pandemic and in what way is

scarce.

This current study investigated the effect of the pandemic-related restrictions on violent crimes,

particularly focusing on comparing domestic violence and assaults in Burlington, Vermont. We

aimed to contribute to the research on COVID-19 and violent crimes by painting a comprehensive

picture of this association, and by analyzing how the trends in domestic violence and general assaults

evolved before and during COVID-19.

Literature Review

Theoretical Framework

The theoretical basis for understanding the impact of COVID-19 on violent crime is derived from

general strain theory (Agnew, 1992) as well as routine activity theory (Cohen & Felson, 1979).

General strain theory (Agnew, 1992) posits that strain tends to create negative emotions, which in

turn increases the likelihood of criminal behavior. According to Agnew (1992), there are three

sources of strain: failure to achieve goals, removal of positive stimuli, and the presentation of

noxious stimuli. Emotional distress resulting from strain leads individuals to take corrective

actions. Criminal behavior is an illegitimate means of coping with strain-generated negative emo-

tions, such as anger, anxiety, and depression.

Restrictions on mobility, social isolation, and economic challenges caused by COVID-19 may

lead individuals to experience negative emotions that, if left unchecked by coping strategies,

promote criminal behavior (Campedelli, Aziani et al., 2020; Payne et al., 2020). Multiple studies

on natural disasters, health emergencies, and crisis situations have demonstrated that disaster-related

stress can produce a substantial increase in domestic violence (Bell & Folkerth, 2016; Evans et al.,

446 Criminal Justice Review 47(4)