The Determinants of Ballot-box Budgeting in California

• Date: 01 June 2018
• Published date: 01 June 2018
• DOI: 10.1177/0160323X18785409
• Author: Jeff Cummins
• Subject Matter: General Interests

General Interest

The Determinants of Ballot-

box Budgeting in California

Jeff Cummins

1

Abstract

Although California often receives national attention for its budgeting at the ballot box, virtually all

states engage in some level of it because bonds and constitutional amendments involving fiscal

matters require voter approval. These decisions can constrain the discretion of policy makers,

often making it harder to adopt annual budgets. Despite these consequences, little scholarly

attention has been paid to this phenomenon. This article investigates the factors that lead to

initiative use on budgetary matters. Specifically, data on California initiatives that earmark revenue

or cut taxes from 1948 to 2004 are used to estimate count models. The results show that divided

government and party polarization are central factors in determining the number of initiatives on

the ballot, but they have divergent effects on earmarks and tax cuts. These factors increase ini-

tiative earmarks, while they reduce tax-cut initiatives. Budget conditions also play a significant role

in the frequency of these measures.

Keywords

budgeting, states, initiatives, elections, ballot box

Budgeting is one of the most important func-

tions that state governments perform. In most

states, annual budgets are adopted by the legis-

lature and allocate funding for vital services,

such as health care, education, and corrections.

Over the last several decades, voters in Califor-

nia and other states have made some significant

budgetary decisions at the ballot box. Instead of

the normal, deliberative budget process, where

legislators take testimony from agency officials

and other experts and negotiate the final con-

tents with the governor, voters get a chance to

weigh in on fiscal decisions with enormous

consequences. This ballot-box budgeting, as it

is known, has led to a dual-track budgeting pro-

cess where legislators and the governor make

the vast majority of budgetary decisions, but

voters also make what are considered to be

some of the most important decisions.

California is often regard ed as ground zero

in the ballot-box budgeting phenomenon

because of the passage of Proposition 13 in

1978 and the renewed interest in the initiative

process. However, while California voters fre-

quently encounter budget-related measures,

they are only slightly more active in this regard

than other initiative states. Cummins (2015)

found that 31 percent of California’s initiatives

have been fiscal in nature, while 25 percent of

1

Department of Political Science, California State Univer-

sity, Fresno, Fresno, CA, USA

Corresponding Author:

Jeff Cummins, Department of Political Science, California

State University, Fresno, 2225 East San Ramon, M/S MF 19,

Fresno, CA 93740, USA.

Email: jcummins@csufresno.edu

State and Local GovernmentReview

2018, Vol. 50(2) 98-109

ªThe Author(s) 2018

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DOI: 10.1177/0160323X18785409

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