The Death of Service.

• Author: GRONBACH, KEN
• Position: Poor customer service sends shoppers online

As the labor shortage deepens, retailers will have to pay more for positions that were previously considered menial, including sales help and delivery personnel.

IF YOU COULDN'T GET SERVICE this past holiday season, you were not alone. Predictions that this shopping season would wind up the most frustrating in years turned out to be true, and the year-round fallout for retailers may be devastating.

The holiday season offers the highest concentration of consumer retail involvement of the year. Consumers came away with the realization that service is dead. There simply was no one available to provide it, and we don't expect the remainder of the year to be any different.

We predict that consumers will have to get used to calling businesses and asking for something that simply can't (or won't) be delivered. Don't be surprised when you go to those stores and see a sign that says "Back at 1:00" because there's no one else to staff them when someone leaves. As a result, it is likely that some businesses will start to offer service as an added benefit. Expect to see marketers promoting products with promises such as "If you buy it now, we'll install it this weekend."

What does the lack of sales help mean for retailers in the future, and what caused it? Forecast to be an ongoing, escalating problem, the death of service isn't because of bad attitudes on the part of customer representatives, as has been reported, but, rather, the result of the shortage of people available to do the jobs. We are at the bottom of the "Birth Dearth" and there are fewer candidates available to work as salesclerks. This population shift has occurred over the last 15 years and will continue to worsen for another 10 years until Generation Y becomes able to supply the necessary sales help for U.S. retailers.

In the meantime, shoppers need to readjust their expectations of service. Consumers will have to budget more time to shop than ever before, and they will no longer find shopping a pleasant experience. The real price you pay for any product in a retail environment is the sum of your time, your effort, and the dollar amount of the product. So, as you wait in line, the price you are paying for the product is going up. We have seen people tiring of the wait, putting down their selection, and leaving the store. If you are finding yourself losing patience with that wait and are just staying home to shop online, you're not alone. Our guess is that 10-15% of people who...