The Dawn of Peace in Europe.

• Author: Gedmin, Jeffrey

"We must fulfill the promise of our time: an undivided Europe of free nations. . . . NATO enlargement is on track and it will happen."

- Warren Christopher, March 20, 1996 in Prague

"The process of NATO enlargement has begun. . . . It is irreversible. . . . Our friends and partners in the new democracies can rely on us."

- Volker Ruhe, April 30, 1996 in Washington, DC

Exuberant diplomatic pronouncements notwithstanding, NATO enlargement is far from secure. The German government - the key to the issue in Europe - remains divided between Volker Ruhe's pro-enlargement defense ministry (controlled by the Christian Democrats) and Klaus Kinkel's hesitant foreign ministry (controlled by the Free Democrats). Chancellor Helmut Kohl has tilted toward Kinkel's more cautious approach. Like Kinkel, Kohl is nervous about the impact that enlargement would have on Russia. He ranks European Union "deepening" through the establishment of a single European currency as his top foreign policy priority - a troublesome project in its own right that is sure to devour Kohl's energy in the months ahead.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ocean, the Clinton administration lost its hard charger on NATO enlargement with the departure of Assistant Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke from government. While statements such as "the train has already left the station" are certain to continue, there is little in the current administration's record to suggest consistency or resolve, and the case against NATO enlargement has been gathering steam. American scholars, pundits, and former policymakers in this camp include Paul Nitze, Senator Sam Nunn, Russia expert Robert Conquest, former Under Secretary of Defense Fred Ikle, former U.S. Ambassador to Moscow Jack Matlock, and The National Interest's Owen Harries. Stephen Sestanovich of the Carnegie Endowment belongs to this group, as does Fareed Zakaria of Foreign Affairs, Charles William Maynes of Foreign Policy, the Washington Post's Jim Hoagland, and Thomas Friedman of the New York Times. Among the most vocal critics of NATO enlargement is Michael Mandelbaum, and his most recent book, The Dawn of Peace in Europe, is sure to become a major intellectual document in the ongoing debate.

An adviser to Bill Clinton in the 1992 campaign, Mandelbaum is Christian A. Herter Professor of American Foreign Policy at Johns Hopkins University and director of the project on East-West relations at the Council on Foreign Relations. From those points of institutional reference, Mandelbaum has been an active voice in the debate between minimalists and maximalists over post-Cold War American foreign policy; clearly Mandelbaum belongs to the latter group. He has argued against the dissolution of the Atlantic Alliance and for a sustained American involvement in Europe on realist grounds: American power is ballast and insurance against Germany...