THE DANGER FOR DEMOCRATS.

• Author: Conniff, Ruth
• Position: MIDDLE AMERICA

The debate among pundits in Washington, D.C., over which Democratic candidate should run against Donald Trump has come down to an argument over who is less appealing to Midwestern voters--the increasingly out-of-it, gaffe-prone Joe Biden, or scary socialists Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. (To be fair, Warren says she's not a socialist, but that doesn't mollify her critics, who are alarmed by her calls to regulate the banks, tax the rich, and offer health care to everyone.)

Not surprisingly, the establishment types in Washington are more comfortable with Biden--although many still hope Pete Buttigieg or Kamala Harris will surge in Iowa and save them from this dreadful choice.

"Drawing a four-hour selfie line in New York does not equate to winning Michigan," sniffs Jennifer Rubin of The Washington Post, in an opinion column that takes aim at Warren. She argues that nominating Warren "is a much bigger risk for Democrats (and the survival of our democracy) than is Biden."

Rubin points to a series of state polls released by The New York Times that show Biden beating Trump by an average of just two points among registered voters in battleground states. The same polls show Trump beating Warren by two points, and Sanders and Trump in a dead heat.

Those couple of polling points--drawn from surveys of 3,766 voters, with the general election still a year away--are not exactly a slam-dunk. For most voters, it's still early. Biden, as the former Vice President, has a huge advantage when it comes to name recognition. Sanders also has a bit of an edge there, after his 2016 run.

Most voters are not watching the marathon Democratic debates. Not only have they not picked a favorite, they have not taken a close look at Biden lately. His senior moments, his odd tangents, the sense that he is always missing a beat, have not registered with the electorate at large. If the Democratic establishment insists on forcing him on the country as the only "viable" candidate based on name recognition and institutional backing, as they did with Clinton in 2016, we may be in for another nasty morning after Election Day in 2020.

Furthermore, it's a mistake to assume that the independent-minded, populist voters of the Midwest are inclined to support a safe, centrist Democrat. Somehow, even after 2016, that's still the assumption many Democrats make.

"A super-progressive nominee who relies on super-progressive white voters," states the authoritative Rubin, "is not a...