The costs and benefits of war.

• Author: Ayres, Ed

There have been 148 wars in the world since the end of World War II, according to military analyst Ruth Sivard. If a war is defined as a conflict killing 1,000 people or more, there were 34 wars in the world in 1993, and about the same number last year--a large number of them going on simultaneously. It is generally known that the costs of even small wars can be staggering, often leaving the participating nations ravaged--though typically enriching certain industries and small factions, and providing geopolitical or financial benefits to outside parties willing to provide arms, training, or aid.

Yet, while most military antagonists may be astute appraisers of the costs of weapons, vehicles, and other military line items, few have any idea of the overall costs of wars--as though wars were not matters over which participants have any choice, and must be fought regardless of cost.

Now, a report just released in the United Kingdom provides what is believed to be the first comprehensive assessment of the costs and benefits of war. The results make it clear that there are indeed choices--and that alternative courses may sometimes achieve desired outcomes at far less cost or with far greater benefit.

The True Costs of Conflict, published by the London-based organization Saferworld in collaboration with six international organizations, offers assessments of seven major conflicts: East Timor (1975--), Ex-Yugoslavia (1989--), Iraq (1990--), Kashmir (1989--), Mozambique (1980-1992), and Sudan (1983--). The seven were chosen to represent the different kinds of conflict that commonly occur, from wars between nations to guerilla campaigns.

The case study of East Timor, for example, tracks the costs both to East Timor, which was invaded by Indonesia in 1975, and to the invading country. Some of the costs arc computed in social terms--more than one-third of the entire Timorese population killed, infant mortality elevated to the highest rate in the world, 400 schools destroyed, and...